Research On Urban Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based On Water Footprint Theory

Water resources are an important material basis for ensuring economic and social sustainability,which is related to human survival and development.The increasing demand for water resources is due to the accelerated modernization process and the expanding urban population and scale.Water stress is not just a challenge for a few water-scarce areas,it's gradually becoming a common problem in the development of cities across the country.Hefei City sits on Chaohu Lake,the fifth largest freshwater lake in the country.The available water resources of the city have been greatly improved.It has the characteristics of abundant precipitation and large water areas of lakes and reservoirs.But the impact of the consumption of a large amount of water resources on Hefei is gradually unfolded in the process of development,because of the rapid development of the city and the rapid increase of water consumption.It is the key to solve the water contradiction in Hefei,which is to maintain economic and social development while effectively alleviating the water pressure caused by excessive water use,and achieve regional sustainable development and ecological balance.Based on the status and basic characteristics of Hefei's water resources,this paper constructs a water resource carrying capacity evaluation index system in Hefei City,analyzes the changes in regional carrying capacity through grain trade and other forms in combination with the water footprint theory,introduces collaborative governance theory to provide a management perspective from three perspectives: government,market and public,and tries to achieve coordinated development of regional water resources.In order to evaluate each indicator,the first step is to construct a complete water resource carrying capacity evaluation system,use the gray forecast GM(1,1)model method to predict the population and GDP output value of Hefei in 2025 and2030,so as to further evaluate the regional water resource carrying capacity in an integrated manner.Secondly,the water footprint quantification method is used to calculate the water footprint accounts of various industries in Hefei to simulate the impact of regional water resources transfer on the carrying capacity caused by the trade flow of crop products.Finally,according to the research conclusions,measures to rationally allocate water resources and strengthen water resources management and utilization are proposed from the three perspectives of the government,the market,and the public.The research results show that: 1)Under the water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system,the carrying capacity of Hefei in the planning year(2025 and2030)is greater than 0.5 and less than 1,which belongs to the carrying range.Water resources can meet the needs of population development but cannot Meet the needs of GDP development;2)Hefei's water footprint is mainly concentrated in the agricultural production process.Through the implementation of the water footprint strategy,the "blue water" footprint in crop products can be converted into available water resources,thereby reducing Hefei's water footprint.The resource carrying capacity can alleviate the regional water shortage problem in the future to a certain extent.Therefore,in view of the weaker water resources carrying capacity of Hefei in the future,a coordinated governance approach led by the government and the participation of the market and the public is proposed.