| Earthquake,which is one of the most destructive sudden disasters,has caused great loss of life and property.Since China lies in the zone between circum-Pacific seismic belt and Eurasian seismic belt,there would be an extremely high risk of devastating earthquake.The rapid development of urbanization and concentration of population make the earthquake potential threat for human life and society development.To well know the casualties caused by earthquake,we have focused our attention on developing an evaluation model based on architectural and demographic characteristics of China.We have integrated our results into the system called China Earthquake Disaster Loss Evaluation System(CEDLAS)to verify the validity of the evaluation model for postearthquake casualties.The research could provide references for preventing and decreasing disaster and rapid post-earthquake relief.The main contents of this paper are as follows:(1)To determine the main factors that affect earthquake casualties,we have collected and analyzed 23 kinds of existing research methods,as well as summarized the key factors that have great influence on these research methods.Then,we select several major factors,such as the seismic hazard,the type of structure,the degree of damage,the population density and earthquake time,to develop the evaluation model for post-earthquake casualties.(2)Firstly,the buildings are classified as residential buildings,commercial buildings,buildings for medical,buildings for education and office based on their usages.The maximum values of personnel density value in each building category are used to represent the personal distribution in all kinds of buildings.In addition,to achieve the personnel changes in different periods,we have adopted questionnaire method to study the in-building rate according to the people’s age,gender,geography,earthquake awareness,as well as the weather conditions and different time of day.The casualty rates under different damage states were obtained by expert survey method.We then established the assessment model for seismic casualties based on probabilistic analysis.(3)Based on the proposed theory and method,we have further exploited the casualty model in the aspects of functional analysis,demand analysis and module of the logic flow chart.These functions were then integrated into CEDLAS through the GIS platform.(4)The earthquake occurred in Huaxian,Shanxi province was used to confirm the rationality and scientificity of the assessment model by analyzing the casualties.The evaluation data were further analyzed by previous assessment methods and compared with the casualty data from Wenchuan Earthquake with similar intensity distribution.The results showed that the assessment model in present work is reliable,which could provide references for preventing and decreasing disaster and rapid post-earthquake relief. |
