Research On Prediction Method Of Scrolling Demand In Garment Supply Chain

With the characteristics of seasonality,fashion and diversity etc.,clothing products are facing the consumers' higher requirements for individuation,differentiation,and timeliness etc..Therefore,rapid response to changing market demands is crucial to apparel companies or clothing supply chains.Demand forecasting that does not dynamically update demand information often fails to provide scientific and powerful decision-making basis for responding quickly to changes in demand.Meeting the needs of customers with higher product holdings often leads to a serious inventory backlog for garment companies.In view of the above situation and problems,this paper proposes a rolling method to predict the demand of apparel supply chain,and explores how to reduce inventory levels and improve response speed.First of all,based on the basic composition and current operation of the clothing supply chain,the method for forecasting the rolling demand of apparel supply chain was proposed and its basic ideas were introduced.The implementation method of rolling demand forecasting for each link of the supply chain under the time iteration dimension and the specific form of rolling connection operation between each link of the supply chain under the dimension of supply chain operation mode were given,and the corresponding method model and operation model were constructed.Secondly,on the basis of constructed the rolling demand forecasting method model and the rolling supply chain operation model,the specific implementation methods and steps of the rolling demand forecasting for each cycle of each link of the supply chain were given.In addition,the specific operation mode and the rolling logic relationship between each ring joint were introduced in detail.Finally,using the proposed supply chain rolling demand forecasting method and the conventional analysis method used in the traditional supply chain,a comparative analysis of the clothing companies in the field research was conducted.The results have showed that the rolling demand forecasting method has higher forecasting accuracy;the rolling supply chain operation model can hold less inventory levels under conditions of meeting the demand;the supply chain rolling demand forecasting method has a shorter cycle of operation,that is,it has faster demand response speed.