Research On Modeling And Forecasting Technology In Pulp & Paper Enterprise Supply Chain Management

Facing the increasingly competent and more dynamic market environment, nowadays the enterprises are aim to improve the level of decision and flexibility due to market demand fluctuate. Based on implementation of ERP System within factory, SCM is an important technology. Process enterprise, in which the process is continuous or batch, is different from the discrete enterprise in ERP and SCM. In our research, the modeling process, forecasting architecture and forecasting simulation, using Multi-Agent System and Artificial Network technology, are discussed. Also, the supply chain management prototype system in process enterprise is present. The following is about the content arrangement of each chapter:Chapter one summarizes several basic concepts in contempt enterprise information process, including ERP and SCM. After the concept and features are compared between process and discrete enterprise, the function requirements of forecasting for supply chain in process enterprise are proposed.Chapter two firstly introduced general modeling theory and some modeling technology, key elements and several model types. According to the SCOR reference model, the network model, process model and information model are present in pulp & paper enterprise.Chapter three is the important part of the thesis, in this chapter,' we apply MAS technology into supply chain modeling in process enterprise. The forecasting hierarchical architecture composite of strategy, coordinate and operate layer are proposed and accordingly each category of function agent are defined, furthermore, the coordinate messages, rules and flows are present.In chapter four, the forecasting technologies are introduced as two types. We compared the application vision between some methods in pulp & paper supply chain and apply neural network method for data simulation of paper products and wood procurement quantities.Chapter five is group project system developing bulaletin in which a supply chainmanagement prototype system is introduced. The general software developing process and technology are summarized firstly, then the modeling process, technology architecture, function module and object-oriented class designing, especially the forecasting framework and algorithm implementation are introduced. There is a application instance in one pulp & paper enterprise.The last chapter summarized the whole research work and presented the work need to be done in the future.