Research On The Correlation Effect Between Population Migration And Commodity Housing Price Fluctuation

As China's economic development enters the "new normal",the demographic dividend and economic growth that support the sustainable development of the housing market have all been confined to the shackles.In this situation,however,the housing prices of major cities in China have continued to fluctuate significantly and regional housing price differentiation has continued to expand in recent years,the reasons behind this phenomenon are intriguing.Meanwhile,China has experiencing a huge and highly regular migration boom.The secondary distribution of population brought by this migration boom will have a great impact on the commodity housing market.According to the performance of china's commodity housing market after 2005,this paper explored the impact of population mobility on commodity housing price fluctuation in major cities under the new normal economic background from the perspective of population spatial structure change.Based on the theories of population migration and housing price,this paper made a preliminary study on the relationship between population mobility and commodity housing price fluctuation in 35 large and medium-sized cities from 2005 to 2015 by means of statistical comparison method.Furthermore,the econometric analysis model,the mixed cross-section estimation and instrumental variable method were used to empirical research the correlation effect of 2010-2015 cities' population mobility and housing price fluctuation in 35 large and medium-sized cities.The results showed that:in the control of the employment density,the scale of the urban resident population,the per capital disposable income of urban residents and the level of infrastructure,thehousing prices in cities with the high proportion of inflow population were even higher,which showed that the proportion of inflow population increased by 10% in 2015,and the housing prices in 2015 increased by 19.463%.The correlation between the housing prices and the population inflow speed showed a trend from significant to insignificant.Under the premise of controlling the proportion of inflow population and population inflow speed,the employment density,the scale of urban resident residents and the per capital disposable income of urban residents have significantly increased housing prices.In addition,there were regional differences in the impact of population inflow scale and speed on housing prices in 2015,which was reflected in the fact that the scale and speed of population inflow had a significant role in promoting housing prices in the eastern cities,and the population inflow speed had a positive effect on housing prices in central cities,while population inflow scale and speed had not shown to have an significant impact on housing prices in western cities.From the perspective of the population migration,the paper suggested to combine the floating population diversity to strengthen and improve the social housing plan,optimize the internal structure of the housing and think highly of the housing welfare to the young people to attract population and talent inflow.In addition,taking advantage of the opportunity of industrial transfer and industrial structure upgrading to guide the rational distribution of fluid population.These suggestions will reduce the speculative pressure on housing market in major cities and urban centers,stabilize housing prices and maintain a stable and healthy development of the real estate market.