Research On The Impact Of Housing Prices On Population Migration

As the reform and opening up,China has keeped a high speed of economic growth and greatly improved people's living standard.Population migration is an important factor to reduce regional differences and promote regional economic convergence.The migration of population,improve the ingoing ground of human capital stock,the city of rapid economic development,the city scale expands unceasingly,but there are also some problems,such as ingoing ground housing problem continuously emerging,area of origin of the human capital stock decline at the same time,leading to economic growth area of origin,urban decay,a tight city,it may further increase the difference between regions.In this background,this article will cities housing prices,population migration,population immigration and population emigration as the research object,clarify the role of house prices to their mechanisms,and starting from the reality needs of migrants and put forward the corresponding measures to solve the problem of population migration and housing,further promote the population urbanization in our country,promoting regional economic convergence.To better analyze the impact of housing prices on migration,this thesis first to push-pull theory as the starting point,draw lessons from the new classical economic theory,the dual labor market theory and the population migration theory in development economics,the prices of the impact of population migration,population immigration and population emigration,puts forward two hypotheses,relationship between housing prices and population migration,house prices and the relationship between the population immigration and population emigration;Second,housing prices and population migration both into dynamic analysis framework,using the 286 cities in China in 2001-2016 panel data,using dynamic panel data model and effective control of endogenous could lead to a model to estimate errors,combined with the large and medium-sized cities and small cities sample contrast,studies the role of house prices on the population migration,the results showed that:Is not a simple linear relationship between housing prices and population migration,but the inverted U type,is a turning point,in the left side of the inflection point,rising prices will stimulate migration,on the right side of the inflection point,the rise in house prices will hinder the migration,in all the samples and sample small city,under the research conclusion there was no difference,but this had no significant effect mechanism in large and medium-sized cities.On this basis,the house price is taken as the threshold variable to conduct the threshold effect test,and the results show that:the alternative hypothesis with a threshold is accepted,while the double threshold effect fails to pass the test,that is,the null hypothesis with a threshold cannot be rejected,which further proves that the non-linear relationship between house price and population migration.Finally,using a two-stage OLS estimates,the use of 286 cities in China in 2001-2016 panel data,with per capita land area of the lag issue as instrumental variable prices,in effective control of endogenous could lead to a model to estimate errors,studies the role of house prices on population immigration and population emigration,it is found that prices are on the move does not exist in but prices will promote the population emigration.Therefore,the effective regulation of the housing market,the establishment of a sound housing policy and housing guarantee system,the improvement of urban construction level,and the enhancement of urban attractiveness are necessary measures to comply with the balanced development of the economy and avoid the contraction of the city.