Research On The Relationship Between Housing Price,Housing Rent And Population Mobility In China

Since 2000,China’s urbanization rate has risen rapidly.The 2015 “Thirteenth FiveYear Plan” clearly proposed to actively promote the new urbanization strategy,and by 2020,the urbanization rate of the permanent population will reach 60%.In the past 20 years,China’s population has frequently moved between different cities,and the scale of population movement has continued to expand.Economic growth has driven population movements,which in turn has promoted economic growth.China’s urbanization process is far from over,so the problem of population migration is worthy of attention.Housing is a necessity for people’s lives,and no matter which city the population flows into,they face housing problems.The cost of living is undoubtedly an important factor affecting population mobility.For the floating population,the cost of living is mainly represented by house prices and rents,so house prices and rents have an important impact on population mobility.At the same time,when a population inflow or outflow occurs in a city,it will affect rents and house prices through demand.Therefore,studying the interrelationships between house prices,rents,and population mobility will help to better promote population mobility and promote the stable and healthy development of the housing market.Income and employment opportunities,cost of living,transportation and communications are important factors affecting population mobility.There is a theoretical interaction between house prices and rents.Both rents and housing prices belong to living costs.The impact of living costs on migration is relatively large.Among them,rents have a greater impact on short-term population movements,and housing prices have a greater impact on the willingness of migrants to settle.Population migration will also affect house prices and rents.When the population flows into cities,it will cause rents to rise in the short term.Due to the interaction between rents and house prices,it will also drive up house prices;the long-term immigrant willingness to settle will increase the demand for housing and further promote housing prices.The rise in housing prices has also contributed to the rise in rents.When the population is flowing out of cities,the demand for renting and buying houses may decrease,which may cause rents and housing prices to fall.Population migration also affects house prices and rents by affecting economic growth.Since the reform and opening up,China’s rapid economic development has promoted population mobility.The population mainly flows from the less developed regions to the more developed regions.At the same time,intra-provincial and interprovincial mobility coexist.Urban housing prices have continued to rise sharply and rapidly in recent years,and there is a clear gap between the level of housing prices and the rate of increase in different cities.Since 2010,China’s urban housing rental prices have risen sharply,and Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Shenzhen and other cities have seen a sharp rise in housing rents.Based on the data of 65 large and medium cities in China from 2008 to 2017,this paper uses the panel VAR(PVAR)model for empirical testing.The test results show that: population migration and housing prices are highly negatively correlated.Rising housing prices will lead to an increase in the cost of living of people,which will lead to a decline in population inflows,while the impact of population migration on housing prices is not significant;rents also have a significant negative effect on population migration Impact,cities with higher rents will lead to a decrease in population inflows,and population inflows will have a positive impact on rents.When the inflow of population increases,the demand for rents will increase,which will in turn drive up rents.This article mainly uses the research method that combines theoretical analysis and empirical test.This article considers the impact of rent on population mobility,introduces it into the analytical framework,studies the relationship between house prices,rent,and population migration,and fully considers the differences between cities,using empirical tests using city-level data.However,due to the late start of China’s housing leasing market and its inadequate development,the availability and continuity of housing leasing-related data are flawed.In the end,this paper only used 10 years of data from 65 large and medium-sized cities for research.