| According to the statistics of world urbanization trends 2018,the average level of global urbanization in 2018 is 55%,and the urbanization level of China is 59.58%,which is higher than the average level of global urbanization.By the end of 2019,the urbanization rate of China’s permanent resident population has reached 60.60%,exceeding 60% for the first time.With the further improvement of urbanization level and residents’ pursuit of future development prospects,the number of urban population migration will continue to increase,and the traditional city-rural migration will become more and more city-urban migration.People hope to obtain more employment opportunities and better living environment through the change of residence.At the same time,as an important pillar industry of the national real estate industry,the housing price is closely connected with people’s livelihood,the state has repeatedly emphasized "the house is used to live,not to fry",through a variety of restrictions to rein in property prices,but the premise to ensure reasonable housing demand,especially under the background of increasing population migration,population migration needs to solve the housing problem,therefore,to study the link between the population migration and housing price has practical significance.Secondly,starting from 2017,various regions have issued policies on talents,including the policies on settling down,promoting employment,housing subsidies,and children’s education,etc.,hoping to attract talents through policies and conditions,and a fierce "war for talents" has been launched across the country.Behind this "a bidding war",had to focus on personnel policy,directly affects the most is the change of population migration,talent policy issued at the same time,around the house price fluctuation also emerge in the,so under the background of talent policy,and on the interaction between population migration and housing price change what kind of impact is worth in-depth study.This paper first summarizes the theory of talent policy,the supply and demand theory,population migration theory,price theory and relevant theory,and then combined with the present status of the talent policy in China,the situation of population migration and the real estate market present situation,the population migration and housing price how relevance theory analysis,population migration Angle migration through the impact of housing supply and the demand for housing prices;Housing price perspective housing price will produce "pull effect" and "crowd out effect" on population migration two ways to change population migration;From the perspective of talent policy,talent policy attracts workers of all levels to move in and changes the supply and demand of local real estate market by providing various welfare policies such as residence allowance and housing purchase subsidy.Then,the relationship between population migration and housing price in the context of talent policy is discussed empirically.By taking 22 cities that have issued talent policies since 2017 as sample data,a simultaneous equation model is established to study the interaction between population migration and housing price.In addition,dummy variables are introduced to analyze whether the talent policy will have an impact on local housing prices and net population migration after its release in 2017.Finally,through the analysis of the model,as well as the comparison of cities at different levels and nationwide,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)Population migration in cities at the national level has a slight positive effect on housing prices,that is,the increase of population migration will drive up local housing prices.Different level cities do not match the prices of the impact of population migration,a line,the migration of first-tier cities is positive effect for house prices,which move will boost the local population housing prices rise,but the population migration’s influence on house prices is not obvious,the main influence factors is still real estate development costs and the local worker average wage,etc.However,population migration in second-and third-tier cities has a negative effect on housing prices.(2)Housing prices at the national level have a positive impact on population migration,that is,areas with higher housing prices have a positive impact on population migration.Cities at different levels do not match the prices of the impact of population migration,a line,a line the city’s high prices for population migration is to promote role,namely "pull effect" is greater than the "crowding out",and the two lines,three lines city high house prices is the negative effect of population migration,the prices of "crowding out" more obvious,hindered the move of the population.(3)According to the statistical results of dummy variables,both at the national level and the city level,dummy variables are significant in the housing price equation and population migration equation,which proves that since the implementation of the talent policy in 2017,both population migration and housing price have undergone significant changes compared with that before 2016.Specifically,the dummy variable has a negative impact on the housing price,which also proves that the relevant preferential policies of talent policy in real estate may bring a certain positive promotion to the local real estate market.However,from the overall perspective,it cannot change the big situation that the housing price tends to be stable and drops slightly.The effect of dummy variables on the population migration equation is positive,and the effect is very obvious,which proves that since the release of talent policies in various regions in 2017,the effect of talent attraction is very obvious,especially in first-tier and quasi-first-tier cities.Finally,based on these conclusions,this paper proposes policy Suggestions for different levels of urban development based on the current talent policy,population migration and commodity housing price.First-tier and quasi-first-tier cities should pay attention to meet the housing demand,strictly control the speculation,so as to strictly control the housing price;Second-and third-tier cities should focus on improving the level of economic development by improving infrastructure construction,developing the real economy and mastering cutting-edge technologies,so as to improve the competitiveness of cities and attract the population to move in.In terms of talent policy,we should make comprehensive use of various policy tools and adjust policies according to the actual situation of urban development,so as to give full play to the role of talents. |
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