The Research On The Influence Of Population Agglomeration On The Price Of Commercial Housing In Chinese Cities

Since the reform of the housing system for more than 20 years,China’s real estate industry has developed rapidly,and the real estate industry has gradually become an important force driving China’s economic growth.During this period,the price of commercial housing in China has risen rapidly,and the price difference of commercial housing between regions has also become larger.However,home ownership has been rooted in the deep expectations of the Chinese people since ancient times.Therefore,in order to pay attention to people’s livelihood,it is necessary to understand the determinants of stimulating commodity housing prices to stabilize housing prices.Due to the scarcity of land,the imperfect competition of the real estate market and the difficulty of determining the basic value of housing,it is difficult to regulate the price of commercial housing on the supply side,and demand has become the decisive factor in the rise of commercial housing prices.The main body of housing demand is residents,and with the relaxation of the household registration system and the rapid progress of urbanization,the degree of population agglomeration in large and medium-sized cities is getting higher and higher,and the regional gap is also increasing.The degree of population agglomeration in large and medium-sized cities in the west is relatively low.Therefore,this article studies whether population agglomeration has an impact on the price of commercial housing,and by what path does it affect the price of commercial housing?This article first analyzes the overall and sub-regional population agglomeration and commodity housing prices in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China.Then,based on the panel data of 35 large and medium cities in China from 2001 to 2018,the system GMM estimation method is used to conduct empirical analysis on the overall and sub-regional data respectively.Finally,economic growth,industrial structure and public services are introduced as intermediary variables to construct an intermediary effect model.Examining the influence path of population agglomeration on the price of commercial housing,it is found that: First,population agglomeration has a significant positive impact on the price of commercial housing in Chinese cities,and there are regional differences in the impact of population agglomeration on the price of commercial housing.The higher the degree of population agglomeration,the higher the price of commercial housing.The greater the promotion effect on commodity housing prices.Second,there are regional differences in the inhibitory effect of interest rate levels on housing prices,and there are regional differences in the impact of psychological expectations on housing prices,and there are also regional differences in the composition of Chinese urban residents’ demand for housing.Third,in the influence path of population agglomeration on the price of urban commercial housing,economic growth,industrial structure and public services have all played an intermediary effect.Accordingly,in order to stabilize the price of commercial housing and promote the coordinated development of China’s regions,this article puts forward the following suggestions: First,reasonably control population agglomeration and promote coordinated regional development.Second,there are regional differences in the composition of Chinese urban residents’ demand for housing.Third,accelerate the supply-side reform of the real estate market and strengthen housing security for the population in cities without houses.