| Compared with pork,mutton has lower fat and cholesterol content,higher protein content and more delicate meat quality.China has about 100 million people in the western regions of Xinjiang,Inner Mongolia and other regions use mutton as their main meat resource.Tens of millions of farmers are engaged in the production of mutton.Therefore the Chinese mutton industry is responsible for not only supplying mutton and ensuring food safety,but also is one of the key links in the targeted poverty alleviation projects in China.So in theory,the Chinese mutton industry should be very important.In recent years,labor costs have increased significantly,and Young people’s interest in mutton farming is waning and the need for food safety control have forced the Chinese mutton industry to develop toward large-scale enterprises.it is a good trend that a number of mutton companies such as Gansu-Zhongsheng Huamei mutton Industry Development Co.,Ltd.,Inner Mongolia Qingqing Prairie Animal Husbandry Co.,Ltd.and Jiangsu Qianbao Animal Husbandry Co.,Ltd.have newly emerged and some large capital organizations also start to invest animal husbandry.Enterprises are important driving force for social and economic development,so in the context of the new economic and economic globalization,the development status of China’s mutton industry needs to be further sorted out and summarized."How should Chinese mutton enterprises formulate development strategies?"becomes a subject worth exploring.In order to study the above two issues,this thesis conducted four analyses:analysis of the market situation of mutton industry in China,analysis of the current status and development trend of the world and Chinese mutton industry,analysis of the cost-benefit of Chinese mutton production,and analysis of competitiveness internationally.In the study,descriptive statistical methods,field research methods,comparative analysis and econometric analysis methods were integratively employed,and the data from the National Bureau of Statistics database,the FAO database,the United Nations Commodity Trade Database,the World Economic Organization database,"Chinese Statistical Yearbook","Compilation of Costs and Benefits of National Agricultural Products" and "Chinese Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Yearbook",and literature,were analyzed with EXCEL software and econometric models.The final conclusion is as follows:1.In the past ten years,the scale of mutton production in the world has been continuously increasing,and in recent years there has been a trend of continuous concentration in Africa and Asia,China contributes greatly to growth of Asian mutton production.The comprehensive level of mutton production in Oceania is the highest and is still improving,and the comprehensive level of production in Africa is the lowest and is declining.In Europe,Oceania and the Americas,the sum of mutton inventory,slaughter volume and mutton production in the world total does not exceed 20%,and there is a trend of decreasing year by year.In terms of carcass weight,except for Africa,all continents in the world are increasing.In terms of mutton slaughter rates,the Americas,Africa and Europe have decreased to varying degrees.Both indicator values in Asia and Oceania have increased,and the increase in Oceania is even greater.The carcass weight of Oceania mutton is the highest,and the slaughter rate of mutton in Asia is the highest2.Chinese mutton market is in severe short supply.Chinese mutton cannot simply rely on imports.The impact of imported mutton on Chinese mutton production is limited,and Chinese mutton industry has great potential to be significantly developed:From 2010 to 2019,China’s mutton production increased from 5.08%to 6.38%of meat production.Over the same period,the apparent per capita consumption of lamb by Chinese residents increased from 3.01 kg/year to 3.76 kg/year,ranking sixth in the world in 2019,about 1.85 times the world average.In addition to being affected by the small ruminant disease that broke out in 2014,China’s lamb market is basically in short supply,the consumption gap has basically increased year by year,the trade deficit has basically increased year by year,and the wholesale price of lamb market has basically increased year by year.However,based on three perspectives:national security needs,residents’ consumption preferences,and shrinking supply of lamb in Oceania,the supply of lamb mainly depends on domestic sources3.The overall international competitiveness of the Chinese mutton industry is weak,and the goat industry has strong international competitiveness.In 2018,China’s show comparative advantage index was 0.04,New Zealand was 145.31,Australia was 27.75,Britain was 2.93,New Zealand had the strongest international competitiveness,and China had the weakest international competitiveness.In 2018,the average price of imported mutton in China and the production cost price of free-range mutton in China were 25.20 yuan/kg and 25.31 yuan/kg,respectively.Mainly because of higher feed costs and lower technical and management levels,the price of imported mutton is lower than the cost of free-range breeding in China.Compared with Australia and New Zealand,the price of Chinese mutton is uncompetitive,and can only rely on large-scale lamb companies to further reduce the cost of production and thus increase international competitiveness.Chinese mutton companies have the opportunity to create a large-scale,feeding-oriented development path according to local conditions.4.In the past ten years,the production cost of free-range mutton in China has increased significantly,and the labor cost has shown an increasing trend year by year.Retailers have gradually withdrawn,and the level of scale has increased year by year.The profitability of both free-range households and large-scale enterprises is more serious.The opportunities and risks of large-scale enterprises coexist.In the past ten years,the production scale of China’s mutton has continuously increased,and the number of large-scale enterprises has continued to increase.There are 12 companies that sell about 100,000 commercial mutton each year.The main breeds of large-scale enterprises are Hu sheep,Dubo sheep,Small-tailed Han sheep and Boer goat;the main development model is self-raising fattening,and they are actively exploring the "company+farmer" development model;the main problem is paying much attention to the foundation construction,ignoring operation management and lack of professional talents.In the past ten years,the product cost of free-range mutton in China has increased substantially and the labor cost has been increasing year by year.The income situation has become more severe.Retailers have gradually withdrawn.The scale of mutton has increased year by year,but the profitability of large-scale enterprises is more serious.Compared with large-scale enterprises,the production cost of free-range households was 4.02%lower in 2018,and the profit was higher.From 2009 to 2017,the number of farms(households)with an annual slaughter size of 1-29 accounted for the highest proportion of the total number of farms(households),but the trend was decreasing year by year.The number of farms(households)with an annual slaughter size of 30-99 in the total number of farms(households)continues to increase,and by 2017 it had exceeded 10%.The number of farms(households)with an annual slaughter size of 100-499 in the total number of farms(households)increased the most,from 1.12%to 2.79%,an increase of 149.11%.The number of farms(households)and their proportion in the annual sales volume of 500 and above are increasing year by year.5.Due to different resources,the cost-benefit situation of free-range mutton in the main provinces(regions)of mutton in China has certain regional differences.In general,Xinjiang shows the characteristics of "high cost,high profit,and stability";Shandong shows the characteristics of "high cost,low profit,and instability";Ningxia shows the characteristics of"medium cost,medium profit,and instability";Shaanxi shows the characteristics of"medium cost,high profit,and stability";Henan shows the characteristics of "low cost,high profit,and stability";Hebei shows the characteristics of "low cost,medium profit,and instability";Heilongjiang shows the characteristics of "low cost,medium profit,and instability". |
