On Price Cluctuation Of Prefabricated Building Based On VAR Model

Prefabricated buildings,as a new type of construction,can save a lot of materials,water,electricity,etc.,and are typical green buildings.Therefore,the country strongly advocates the development of prefabricated buildings.However,the cost of prefabricated buildings is currently higher than that of traditional cast-in-situ buildings,and the price fluctuations are increasingly affected by factors,which will affect the price of prefabricated buildings to varying degrees;and the self-regulating power of prefabricated building prices is weak,causing many problems.However,the current research on the price fluctuations of prefabricated buildings is still blank.Therefore,this article comprehensively and quantitatively analyzes the impact of price fluctuations on prefabricated buildings to promote the sustainable and healthy development of prefabricated buildings.This article first reviews the research literature at home and abroad for three aspects of prefabricated buildings,price fluctuations and vector autoregressive models.Based on this,the concept of prefabricated buildings,construction process,characteristics,price formation and fluctuation are defined.And combining the two keywords to analyze the theoretical basis of the price of prefabricated buildings,the research method of price fluctuation analysis is further selected,and the VAR model is selected as the analysis model.The literature survey method was used to collect and count 53 factors affecting the price fluctuations of prefabricated buildings.The factors were screened through expert surveys and questionnaires.The statistical analysis of the survey results was conducted with the help of IBM SPSS Statistics 17.The factors are summarized into a total of 12 in four aspects of national policy,design factors,management factors and production factors,ensuring the integrity and scientificity of the analysis results.Through specific calculation and analysis of each influencing factor,construct a VAR mathematical model to conduct an empirical analysis of the price of assembled buildings in Shenyang,and analyze the price fluctuations of assembled buildings in Shenyang.This paper establishes a comprehensive and quantitative model of price fluctuations of prefabricated buildings,which provides a theoretical basis for price fluctuations of prefabricated buildings.The study found that both management factors and production factors have a positive effect on the assembly price.Among the management factors,for each 1%change in the completeness of the industrial chain,the number of mold turnovers,and the installation efficiency,the assembly building price will increase by 0.71%;the production factor For every 1%change in workers wages,material prices,machinery prices,and transportation distances in China,the price of prefabricated buildings will increase by 0.06%;national policies and design factors will have an adverse effect on prefabricated prices,including fiscal subsidies and tax policies in national policies.For every 1%change,the price of prefabricated buildings will fall by 0.72%;for every 1%change in the design factor,the assembly rate,component split,and number of component factories,the price of prefabricated buildings will fall by 0.72%.Through the empirical results,the influence degree of each component of the price fluctuations of prefabricated buildings is clarified from a quantitative perspective.Provide theoretical support and decision-making reference for stabilizing the price of prefabricated buildings,avoiding the impact of the construction market price,maintaining the stability of the prefabricated building market,protecting the immediate interests of upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain,and helping the sustainable and healthy development of prefabricated buildings.