Study On Modeling The Operation Costs Of The Arctic Container Line Considering Risks Of Disruption

Arctic sea routes have for long been a world-wide focus because of shorter distances between the Atlantic and the Pacific and the role in relieving pressure on the busiest two traditional routes for container shipping.Until now,models about the profitability of Arctic container shipping have been established.However,these models neglect the variety of navigation speed along the Arctic routes due to various ice-situations in Arctic Zone,and for the cost structural limitation,they never take risks of disruption into account.So as to raise the accuracy of assessment,this thesis analyzes the disruptions and the delays along the Arctic container shipping routes,and develops a mathematical model to minimize operation costs including penalties for deviation of arrival time and for undelivered containers.To achieve this target,a piecewise linear interpolation is used to transform this non-linear problem into a MILP one.Then,two cases are followed to discuss about the solvability of the model and validity about the improvements made by this model.Finally,this thesis proposes some relevant planning recommendations on the basis of analyzing of China's opening the Arctic's container transport routes.This thesis provides some references for the ways of the quantitative analysis on the risks of disruption along the Arctic routes and new trains of thought for modeling the operation costs of the Arctic container line with considering the risks of disruption,hoping to give certain references to the designing of a service network of container shipping through the Arctic routes.