Economic Study Of Arctic Sea Routes And Emergency Response Of Maritime Accidents At The Arctic Ocean Based On Complex Networks Theory

Global warming has brought opportunities for Arctic resources development, increasingly ice-free Arctic Ocean presented availability for commercial shipping in recent years. The development of Arctic routes will have a major impact on the world shipping trade pattern and the marine transport network. However, the navigation environment of the Arctic routes is rather complicated and there is a lack of awareness of the factors influencing the safe voyages on Arctic routes. Once incidents and accidents occur on Arctic routes, the challenging environment for search and rescue may lead to huge loss of life and property. Providing effective emergency response and salvage for shipping accidents at sea, enhancing environmental pollution protection and management, developing reasonable contingency plan have important theoretical and practical significance for Arctic routes utilization.To analyze the navigational safety status of the Arctic sea routes, the ash-cloud cluster model is established using fuzzy and grey evaluation index. It suggests that the North East Passage is navigable but unsafe. Economic analyses comparing the Arctic routes with China's traditional shipping lanes are conducted on container ships, oil tankers and bulk carriers. Container liner routes for China-Euro container trade are designed considering the North East Passage and the Suez Canal route. We explore the relationship between the carbon emission tax that might be imposed in the future and the economy of the Arctic routes. Sensitivity analysis reveals the economic impact of the key parameters. The complex network of Arctic routes emergency response is established. Rescue abilities of related countries and the rescue abilities to different sea areas of the Arctic routes are estimated. The complex network of Arctic routes emergency response we built in this paper proves to be a small-world network. Based on public goods game theory and evolutionary game theory, the evolutionary game model of environmental governance public goods complex network of the Arctic routes is created. It concludes that improving the long-term benefits and select an appropriate investment return coefficient would promote cooperation in the evolutionary game model. The evolution model of the complex network of the contigency plan for Arctic routes is established. The influence of the emergency plan in each level of the complex network and the impact of the participation of non-Arctic countries on the emergency plan system are probed. It concludes that only a small number of authoritive plans have a great impact on the network. In a certain priority probability, the participating of non-Arctic countries can make the system of the Arctic contingency plan more stable. After all, the conclusions obtained by this research can enrich and expand the theory about the Arctic routes. The numerical results also provide theory basis and reference to Arctic routes design, emergency response and salvage, environmental protection cooperation, emergency contingency plans designation among a diverse group of Arctic and non-Arctic stakerholders and decision makers...