Study On The Geo-economic Pattern Caused By The Arctic Passage

In recent years,the natural navigation environment of the Arctic Passage has become more and more optimistic with the accelerated melting of Arctic ice and as a result,the international community has also conducted more and ore explorations.In October 2017,China's "Snow Dragon" completed the eighth Arctic examination,achieving the goal of crossing the Central Passage and the maiden voyage of the Northwest Passage.The opening of the Arctic Passage has undoubtedly brought enormous challenges to human society,but it also means there will be huge opportunities.The Arctic Passage has a recognized political and economic status.At present,scholars at home and abroad have conducted a majority of researches on it.Scholars generally believe that due to the trend of global extension and dynamic for the the Arctic Passage,except for the Arctic countries,the countries within the influence of the channel radiation will also be the main interests.At the same time,the Arctic Passage has greatly shortened the navigation distance between North America,Northeast Asia and Northern Europe,thus greatly reducing navigation costs and increasing the annual benefits.According to statistics,the Arctic Passage can shorten the navigation distance by 10% compared to the traditional channel in general.The reduction in shipping distance has shortened the navigation time and has caused a great impact on trade between countries as well.Trade flows have been increased and the trade economy has been further developed at the same time.According to statistics,the opening of the Arctic Passage has increased the total import and export volume of China,Japan and Korea by 14.62,43.11 and 47.45 times respectively,which shows the trade value of it.In addition,the passage will make the human community more accessible to the Arctic,which is rich in natural resources,such as the oil and gas,fisheries,timber and mineral resources.Eventually,the energy crisis of the human society will be mitigated to some extent.We need to pay attention to the phenomenon that the Arctic Passage has opened up a new geostrategic space.All stakeholders are competing for the huge economic benefits brought by the passage within this geographical scope.Under the growing trend of economic globalization and regional economic groups,no country can just focus on itself.Every country seek the cooperation with others to achieve win-win results.Stakeholders for the Arctic Passage will also do the same.In order to maximize their profits,all stakeholders will establish different cooperation and competition mechanisms within this geographical scope to achieve the acquisition and expansion of benefits.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to conduct research on the Arctic Passage from the perspective of geo-economics.This paper firstly explains the research background,research purposes and significance,research content,technical route,research methods and major innovations and difficulties in the introduction.The second chapter describes the research status at home and abroad,including the definition of the interests of the Arctic Passage,the analysis of the economic interests and the geo-political and geo-economic research.The third chapter gives a detailed introduction to the geographical location of the three routes,the Northeast Passage,the Northwest Passage and the Central Passage and natural resources that might been brought.Then,this paper analyzes the geo-economic benefits and the geo-economic pattern that may be formed from two levels.For one hand,this paper qualitatively analyzes the geo-economic interests in the fourth chapter,and on this basis defines the geo-economic benefits of the Arctic Passage,which is considered to be composed of three aspects,shipping interests,trade benefits and resource interests.At the same time,in the fourth chapter,this paper studies the main factors affecting the geopolitical interests for all the stakeholders and points out that the ability and demand determine the amount;The optimal value is the reference series,which compares the advantages and disadvantages of each stakeholder in the main influencing factors,and quantifies the magnitude of the geo-economic interests between each other.For the other hand,in the fifth chapter,this paper further analyzes the influence mechanism of geoeconomic interests on the geo-economic pattern.Through the improvement of the energy terrain model,the geo-economic pattern that may be formed between 25 stakeholders is finally simulated.The main research conclusions show that there are indeed differences in geoeconomic interests among the 25 stakeholders.China,Japan,Russia,and the United States have the most geo-economic interests and the traditional airline beneficiaries have the lowest;Germany,South Korea Countries such as the United Kingdom,France,and Italy are equivalent to the Arctic countries Norway,Finland,Sweden,Iceland,Canada,and Denmark,and their actual geo-economic benefits are not much different;Spain,India,Singapore are weaker to other observers in the Arctic Council.At the same time,under the influence mechanism of geo-economics,if there will be formed two camps among all the stakeholders,then China and Russia will in the same camp and Asian and African countries will follow their pace;The United States,Canada and other Arctic countries will "differentiate" with Russia,which is the direct result for Russia's "hegemonic" Arctic policy;pro-Americans continue to maintain their original position and join the American camp.Therefore,for one thing,if the stakeholders of the Arctic Passage want to expand their own interests,the best way is to enhance their relevant abilities.Due to the fact that geographical location is unchangeable and the countries have always been unsettled in the development for politic and economy,upgrading the technology of ocean navigation has become a top priority.For the other thing,if the geo-economic pattern of the two camps is formed in the future,it will be harmful for the countries,which are not the Arctic countries but be influenced by the Arctic Passage,to acquire the geo-economic benefits.How to formulate effective and feasible policies and guidelines,gain more voice in the Arctic affairs,improve their ability to compete for the interests of the Arctic,and ultimately enhance the results of cooperation between them is a question worthy further and deep research.