Impact Of Using The Arctic Passage On World Trade Pattern

With the global warming,the Arctic sea ice accelerates to ablate and the possibility of the Arctic Passage is increasing.As a new opportunity for the development of the Arctic region,the Arctic Passage has attracted more attention from all over the world.Once fully opened,it will change the long-term situation between the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal as the main routes connecting the Pacific and the Atlantic,affecting the international shipping pattern,providing new impetus to global trade,and having a profound impact on energy development and capital flows.Therefore,the study of the impact of the Arctic Passage on the world trade pattern has certain significance in academic and practical application.The first chapter introduces the background,significance,research content,framework and innovation of the study.The second chapter summarizes and analyzes the navigation conditions of the Arctic Passage,the economic analysis,the impact on international trade,and the world trade pattern.It is found that domestic and foreign scholars have little research on the humanities and social sciences in the Arctic Passage.The research of the impact on the global trade pattern is still blank.Based on the review and discussion of the existing literature,this paper further clarifies the research perspective and ideas.The third chapter gives a comprehensive overview of the general situation of the Arctic Passage and of the world trade pattern,including the current status of the Arctic sea ice,the navigation condition of the Arctic Passage,and the development of the world trade pattern.After that,the paper analyzes the subject from two parts.The first part,the fourth chapter,theoretically analyzes the path of impact of the Arctic Passage to the world trade pattern and draws a path figure,and then explains the mechanism of the Arctic Passage's influence on the world trade pattern.The second part is the fifth chapter.On the basis of theoretical argumentation,it analyzes the specific impact of the Arctic Passage on the world trade pattern from an empirical perspective.Based on the network analysis,using the bilateral trade data of 46 countries in 2007 and 2010 for network centrality analysis,block model analysis and QAP correlation analysis.The changes in the world trade pattern before and after the opening of the Arctic Passage were obtained.At the end of the article,Chapter 6 summarizes the conclusions and outlook of the research.The results show that the Arctic Passage mainly changes the trade direction and increases the trade flow by shortening the shipping distance and generating new shipping routes,thus affecting the world trade pattern.The Arctic Passage affect world trade flows by reducing the distance between Asia,Europe and North America,saving transportation time and costs.As a new shipping route,the Arctic Passage will affect international trade flow by changing the shipping pattern and promoting the upgrading of related industrial structures.In addition,the article explains the mechanism of the influence of the Arctic Passage on the world trade pattern.The main theories include the trade gravity model,the new trade factor theory,and the technology gap theory.In the empirical analysis,the analysis of trade data by network analysis shows that:(1)The Arctic Passage has promoted global trade,making the world trade development more even.The volume of trade is related to whether the trade parties belong to the Arctic Council countries.(2)After the navigation of the Arctic Passage,the import trade showed a trend of balanced development,but the trade volume of export trade around the United States,China and other major trading countries increased significantly;The trade intervention capability and control ability between trade powers and small countries are gradually averaging,indicating that the opening of the Arctic Passage is conducive to the balanced development of trade influences,and the world trade pattern is further shifting toward multipolarization.After the opening of the Arctic Passage,the trade strength of the United States,China,Japan,and the EU have always been at the forefront,and they have strong influence and control in the world trade pattern.It can be seen that under the stimulation of the Arctic Passage,the world trade pattern has undergone tremendous changes,and the trade pattern of a super(US)-strong(China,Japan and Europe)has gradually changed into a multipolar trade pattern.