Analysis Of The Economic Effect Of China-Russia Cooperation In The Development Of The Arctic Passage

Polar climate is the amplifier of global warming.The accelerated melting of sea ice in the Arctic region has increasingly highlighted the potential value of the Arctic region.The change of climate and geographical conditions has created the necessary prerequisite for China-Russia cooperation in the development of the Arctic Passage.In 2022,the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out,and western countries jointly imposed sanctions on Russia.In order to break through the dilemma of sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States,Russia chose the cooperative development of the Arctic Passage as one of the breakthrough paths.Putin even signed the presidential order to initially open the Arctic Passage before 2035,and decided to make every effort to develop the Arctic Passage.This paper first combs the domestic and foreign documents on the cooperative development of Arctic Passage to clarify the current research status of China-Russia cooperative development of Arctic Passage.Second define the concept of the Arctic Passage and economic effect,list geographical economic theory,comparative advantage theory,international cooperation theory as the reference theory of this paper,from the Arctic Passage traffic status and infrastructure construction to analyze the current situation of the Arctic Passage,using SWOT analysis to analyze the China-Russia cooperation development of the Arctic Passage environment.Then the theory analysis of China-Russia cooperation development of the economic effect of China and Russia,mainly the Arctic Passage development must involve port development and infrastructure construction,help to promote the port economic development,adjust the industrial structure between China and Russia,transfer domestic excess capacity,improve the economic effect of regional development and port construction,promote the development of energy trade.On the basis of the theoretical analysis of the economic effects,the GTAP model is used to simulate the economic effects of the cooperative development of the Arctic Passage.The simulation results show that after the completion of the cooperative development of China and Russia on the Arctic Passage,it has significant economic value to both China and Russia,as stated in the theoretical analysis of economic effects.Due to the development of port economy,the improvement of industrial structure and other positive economic effects to promote the development of import and export trade between China and Russia,the trade change effect is obvious;the overall welfare within the region will increase to different degrees,the trade conditions will be improved,and the internal economic effect and production effect will increase significantly.At the same time,the trade change effect,internal economic effect and production effect of Finland,Sweden and other countries along the Arctic Passage will also be improved to some extent.Finally,the theoretical and empirical analysis of the economic effect of the Arctic Passage.Meanwhile,the relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to further enhance the economic effect between China and Russia strengthen technological innovation and development through ice-breaking technology,satellite navigation and communication;third,China promotes certain strategies and China’s positive image at home and abroad to further enhance the political mutual trust between China and Russia.