The Research On The Simulation Model Of The Arctic Passage Voyage Economic

The Arctic Passage can be divided into the Northeast Passage, the Northwest Passage and the North Pole Passage according diffident route. The fabled Arctic Passage was the goal of early European navigators reaching the Far East by going across North America, avoiding the long route through the difficult straits of Magellan. While ice conditions made it too difficult, slowing transport at best and destroying carriers at worst. Many explorers tell taught the dangers of the passage, and the longer sea route, and later the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal became the routes of choice.With global warming, the Arctic sea ice is rapidly melting, inspiring the mankind’s desire of conque the Arctic Passage. In the summer of 2009, Germany Brugg shipping company’s two cargo ships completed all of the voyage through the northeast passage, without Russian icebreaker. But the critical question is whether on a commercial basis theArctic Passage is competitive with the traditional route. Therefore, this article is studying and analyse the economy of the Arctic Passage.The research framework of this paper is based on propose the problem, problem analysis, problem solving step by step progression outlined. This study begins by describing the background and significance, briefly introduction to the content of this study, the framework and research ideas. On this basis, the natural situation, the history of Arctic Passage and the current status are introduced. Later, the ship operating index, economic evaluation index and routes cost structure are introduced.and then, a detailed analysis of the operating parameters that affect the economy of the Arctic Passage is carried out. Then, after discrete-event simulation theory, data statistical analysis and stochastic simulation method are introduced, elaborate on the economic simulation strategy of the ArcticPassage, after that the simulation flow diagram of the economic analysis of the Arctic Passage is obtained Further, AIRSS is introduced and routes and Ship are selected, the simulation model is applied using the collected data material, and a preliminary simulation results are obtained. Finally, on the base of the Arctic Passage navigation cost model, combination of the preliminary simulation results from Chapter V, the economy of the Arctic Passage is simulated using the @ Risk software, and the results are discussed. At last, simply analysis China’s strategic choice on the arctic passage. This study, to some extent, can help shippers, insurers and governments to assess the risk of opening up a shorter northern routes between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.