| Water resources are important necessity for survival and production,while the shortage has severely restricted the sustainable and stable development of social economy at the new era of rapid economic development.In 2017,the relevant opinions on the assessment and early warning mechanism of resources and environment carrying capacity has been put forward by the government,to manage the use of regional water resources and establish the evaluation mechanism of resources carrying capacity for the reference to the social development planning and relevant policies' implementation among regions with different carrying capacity.Scientific,reasonable and effective water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system and methods are the prerequisites for establishing a water resources carrying capacity evaluation mechanism.Furthermore,they are of great significance for the relevant research on water resources carrying capacity.Based on the analysis of the current status of regional water resources carrying capacity and the high-dimensional non-normal special attributes of water resources carrying capacity evaluation index data,this paper uses a projection pursuit evaluation model based on maximum information entropy and a projection pursuit dynamic cluster evaluation model,by constructing an optimization model and solving the optimal projection direction,reducing the multi-dimensional evaluation index data,thereby turning the complex problem of multiple indexes into a simple problem of a single comprehensive evaluation index.Moreover,the two methods are applied to the water resources carrying capacity evaluation of Anhui Province from2006 to 2015 and all prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province at 2015.The evaluation results have shown a good consistency.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)From the perspective of spatial and temporal differences of water resources,Anhui Province is selected as the research area.On the time scale,although the water resources carrying capacity of Anhui Province from 2006 to 2015 fluctuate in certain periods,it has been improved gradually year by year.On the spatial scale,the evaluation results of 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui at 2015 gradually improved from north to south,and the evaluation grade distribution are with a good continuity.Although the two methods show a good consistency in the evaluation grade results,the result obtained by latter one is more optimistic than the former one.(2)In order to quantitatively analyze the difference between the evaluation results of the two methods and determine the "pros and cons" for these two methods on theevaluation results of water resources carrying capacity,the final projection index value is nondimensionalized.Then the unified evaluation grade standard is re-determined,the deviation of evaluation results between the two methods is analyzed.It is found that there is a certain deviation of evaluation results between the two methods and it shows that the deviations among the regions with obvious advantages and disadvantages of water resources carrying capacity in the north and south are less than the transitional areas on both sides of the Huaihe River Basin on spatial scale.(3)Although the evaluation results of the two methods are basically the same according to the final evaluation result level,the regional water resources carrying capacity is a complex open system with many influencing factors,and it is impossible to summarize all its characteristics with a single model.Therefore,only a "relatively reasonable" result could be obtained with any evaluation method,which also reflects the uncertainty of water resources carrying capacity.The evaluation results of the above two methods are consistent on the spatial and time scale at Anhui Province,which also shows the applicability of the two methods on the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity,which can be used as the basis for water resources planning,management and monitoring,early warning and evaluation mechanisms formulation. |
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