Evaluation Of Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based On Grey Relational Analysis And Set Pair Analysis

The evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is the core content of the study of water resources carrying capacity.In recent years,some experts and scholars have done a lot of research on the comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity,but there is still a lack of effective evaluation methods.The thesis took Anhui Province as the study area,according to the characteristics of the water resources system,the economic and social system and the ecological environment system in Anhui Province,the author established the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui,which consists of bearing ability system,bearing pressure system,regulation ability system of water resources and 13 indexes,then the evaluation criteria were determined and the index weight were determined by using AGA-FAHP.On this basis,a grey relational analysis model,a set pair analysis model,and two coupling evaluation models based on grey relational Analysis and set pair analysis were constructed.The four methods were applied to the evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity of Anhui Province,and the main achievements were obtained:(1)On the basis of the grey system theory,the evaluation model based on grey relational analysis was constructed.The model is applied to the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui province.The results show that the level of water resource carrying capacity of all the cities in Anhui Province in 2012~2015 is grade II,and the separating capacity of the model is general.(2)On the basis of grey relational analysis model,set pair analysis was introduced to construct a coupling evaluation model(1)based on grey correlation analysis and set pair analysis.This model was compared with the situation of water resources carrying capacity diagnosed by set pair subtractive situation,and the diagnosis results were exactly the same with the evaluation results,which improved the problem of separating capacity of grey relation analysis method in evaluation problem to some extent.(3)On the basis of set pair analysis theory,the evaluation model based on set pair analysis was constructed.The model was applied to the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui province.The results showed that the distribution of the evaluation results of water resources carrying capacity in different cities in Anhui has obvious difference,and the evaluation results were relatively dispersed in 2012~2015.(4)On the basis of set pair analysis model,grey relational analysis was introduced to construct a coupling evaluation model(2)based on grey correlation analysis and set pair analysis.This method is different from the coupling evaluation model(1)based on grey relational analysis and set pair analysis,which coupling the grey relational analysis and the set pair analysis from another angle.The evaluation results of the water resources carrying capacity of the two models are consistent,and the results of the evaluation are confirmed by each other.But the evaluation result of the coupling evaluation model(2)had a higher grade division,and from the south to the north of the water resources carrying capacity becomes gradually weaker,more in line with the actual situation of water resources in Anhui province.Therefore,the coupling evaluation model(2)is the best of the four evaluation methods,which provides a new idea for the comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity.(5)The author used ArcGIS technology to analyze the overall trend of the water resources carrying capacity of Anhui Province in 2012~2015,the results showed that the water resources in southern Anhui province were better than the northern part of Anhui province,and the evaluation results were consistent with the actual situation.The reasons for overloading in Ma'anshan,Fuyang and Huainan and the Countermeasures for the future were analyzed,which can provide the basis for the comprehensive planning and management of water resources in Anhui province.To sum up,the two coupling evaluation models applied to Anhui province have achieved good application results.The two models are simple,intuitive,scientific and reasonable,and have strong practicability,which can provide new ideas for the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity.