Evaluation Method And Application Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based On Connection Number And Risk Matrix

The evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is an important part of the study of water resources system,which is the preliminary work of the diagnosis and identification of water resources carrying capacity overload factor,the prediction of water resources carrying capacity and the early warning of water resources carrying capacity.In order to construct a reasonable evaluation method of water resources carrying capacity and identify the main factors,based on the discussion of the interaction among the three subsystems of water resources carrying support force,carrying pressure force and carrying regulation force,this paper preliminarily explores the mechanism of using risk matrix to analyze water resources carrying capacity evaluation,and attempts to use asymmetric connection cloud and risk matrix Coupling further clarifies the validity of the evaluation mechanism research,attempts to use the connection number to construct the diagnosis and identification method of the overload factor of regional water resources carrying capacity,and uses the above methods to carry out the application research in Anhui Province,and the research results are as follows:?1?In order to evaluate the regional water resources carrying capacity comprehensively and explore the mechanism of water resources carrying capacity evaluation preliminarily,this paper puts forward the idea of combining set pair analysis with risk matrix to evaluate the regional water resources carrying capacity?WCC-SPAM?,and establishes the WCC-SPAM model based on connection number and risk matrix.The WCC-SPAM model is used to evaluate the Huaibei City from 2010 to 2015.The results show that the water resources carrying capacity of Huaibei City from 2010 to 2015 is level 2,3,3,2,3 and 3 respectively,which is consistent with the evaluation results based on the set pair analysis method?level 2,3,2,2,3 and 3?.?2?In order to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of 16 prefecture level cities in Anhui Province by combining the quantitative model and mechanism research,and further clarify the effectiveness of the research on the water resources carrying capacity evaluation mechanism based on the risk matrix,the model?ACCRMM?based on the asymmetric connection cloud and risk matrix is constructed.The results of the application of the model to the water resources carrying capacity of Anhui Province in2015 show that there are obvious regional differences of the 16 prefecture level cities,and the water resources carrying capacity tends to weaken from south to north;the water resources carrying capacity of 6 prefecture level cities in the north of Anhui Province is grade III;the water resources carrying capacity of 4 prefecture level cities in the middle of Anhui Province is grade II The water resources carrying capacity of Ma'anshan and Wuhu City in southern Anhui Province is evaluated as grade II,while that of Tongling,Chizhou,Huangshan and Xuancheng City is evaluated as grade I.?3?In order to identify the key factors that cause the regional water resources carrying capacity to be in the critical state of overload and overload,a model?DIRWCC?based on the connection number is constructed,and a case study on the water resources carrying capacity of Anhui Province in 2015 is carried out.The results show that the key factors that lead to the critical overload and overload of the water resources carrying capacity of 12 prefecture level cities in Anhui Province are X₁per capita water resources,X₂annual water module,X₄vegetation coverage,X₇ecological water utilization rate and X₁₁population density.The importance order is X₂>X₁>X₁₁>X₇>X₄.X₂annual water module is the primary key factor for diagnosis and identification.In conclusion,based on the study of the three subsystems of water resources carrying capacity,the evaluation model based on the connection number and risk matrix has preliminarily explored the evaluation mechanism,and the evaluation results are consistent with the actual water resources carrying status.The evaluation results of the evaluation model based on asymmetric connection cloud and risk matrix are consistent with the actual situation,which further clarifies the effectiveness of the evaluation mechanism research.A case study of Anhui Province is carried out based on the diagnosis and recognition model based on the connection number.The results are basically consistent with the current situation of water resources in Anhui Province.