Evaluation Methods Of Technology Maturity Similar To Hype Cycle

Traditional technology maturity methods could be divided into three types, which are technology readiness level(TRL), bibliometrics and patent analysis. Hype Cycle, proposed by Gartner in America, is a new evaluation method of technology maturity combining of qualitative and quantitative methods. Hype Cycle can reveal the basic laws of evolution of technological innovation while serving as a powerful tool to predict the general developments of technological innovation, make objective evaluations of the maturity level of technological innovation, choose the best intervention time of technological innovation and seek the post-development advantages of technological innovation.Gartner’s reports on emerging technology maturity, based on the release of Hype Cycle, have received worldwide recognition and attention from industries since 1995. Gartner’s Hype Cycle reports require a large number of experts, and the prosesses of the specific methods by which Hype Cycle is drawn have not been made public. As a result, researchers other than Gartner’s cannot draw Hype Cycle curves personally and quantitatively. To address these problems, combined with individual technology maturity evaluation, we analyzed the principles of synthesizing Hype Cycle curve with non-linear regression. Therefore, we were able to form a curve similar to Hype Cycle. Besides, with co-occurrence analysis and K nearest neighbor classification, we could achieve the maturity evaluation of multiple technologies within technology cluster and demarcate the corresponding interval of each technology in standardized Hype Cycle curve.The study falls into two parts. One is researching on the maturity evaluation methods of individual technology, the other one is the maturity evaluation methods of multiple technologies within technology cluster. In addition to single sub-technology, the individual technology also refers to a technological field or technological theme. iv The technology cluster is composed of a number of technologies on the same topic and granularity, whose relevance is very strong. The maturity evaluation of individual technology focuses on longitudinal time series of maturity. The maturity evaluation of multiple technologies within technology cluster focus on the comparison and ranking of different technologies.Hype Cycle is formed by superimposing the bell curve and S-shaped curve. According to SCI papers and patents, the study obtained the bell curve and S-shaped curve with the method of non-linear regression. And according to the mathematical characteristics, the maturity of individual technology is divided into phases of infancy, expansion, growth and stability. Then, with the method of polynomial fitting, we can obtain one curve that similar to Hype Cycle, depicting the trends of individual technology.The maturity evaluation method of multiple technologies within technology cluster consists of four parts: scoping, tracking, ranking and evaluating. First of all, we have delineated the scope of the evaluation and the topic of technology according to the objectives of organizations. Secondly, we have concentrated our research on the content of the technological theme, including structural analysis based on the co-occurrence of Derwent Class Code and the topic analysis based on the co-occurrence of Derwent Manual Code and the key words of articles. In addition, based on content analysis of articles, we determined the multiple technologies within technology cluster. Thirdly, through the means of K nearest neighbor classification, we have classified the maturity of multiple technologies within technology cluster. Finally, the most appropriate technology has been selected according to the organization type.In order to verify the reliability and effectiveness of the maturity evaluation methods of individual technology, this study accomplished the experiment on traditional radiography and photoacoustic tomography. Meanwhile, to prove the effectiveness of the maturity evaluation methods of multiple technologies within technology cluster, we analyzed the adoption tactics of four types of hemoglobin oxygen carriers technology, which are polyethylene glycol modified hemoglobin technology, class corpuscular hemoglobin technology, glutaraldehyde polymerized hemoglobin technology and cross-linked hemoglobin molecules technology. The results of the two experiments showed that the results of such evaluation of technology maturity similar to Hype Cycle were consistent with and experts’ comments, suggesting the feasibility and effectiveness of the evaluation methods of technology maturity similar to Hype Cycle.There are mainly two aspect innovatives about this study. Firstly, we have achieved the technology maturity curve similar to Hype Cycle based on quantitative data, and analyzed the principles of synthesizing Hype Cycle curve. Secondly, the study has attempted to apply the evaluation methods of technology maturity similar to Hype Cycle in biomedical technology. By testing traditional radiography, photoacoustic tomography and four types of hemoglobin oxygen carrier technology, this study suggests that the effect of this method is well verified.The analyses to the principles of Hype Cycle and establishment of the evaluation method of technology maturity could reduce the time and economic costs of technology maturity evaluation. On this basis and in combination with qualitative judgments of experts in related spheres, the results of technology maturity evaluation will become more comprehensive, objective and accurate, contributing to the formulation of strategies for technology innovation.