Construction And Application Of Computable General Equilibrium Model Based On GAMS Language

Due to the in-depth theoretical basis,comprehensive description of the social economy and equilibrium characteristics in all the markets of the general equilibrium model, especially the general equilibrium model of the GAMS language, because of its nonlinear equations and flexible way of programming language, to accelerated the application and development of the general equilibrium model. At the same time, because of the growing detailed research department of agriculture industry, and general equilibrium model in the existing division is not detailed enough, can not meet the requirements of economic and social development and the scientific research work. This paper constructed the China agriculture computable general equilibrium model based on GAMS language and social accounting matrix with detailed agriculture sectors, in order to better describe the running status of the agricultural sector, and the use of the empirical analysis, potential effects of drought loss to China macro economic and food security simulation.By referring the basic structure of IFPRI model, the China agriculture CGE model we constructed including the price module, production and trade module, institute module and system constraint module. From the SAM with detailed agriculture department, according to the China input-output table in2007, according to customs data, agricultural product cost income data, employment and wage data, financial data, household survey data, the rural financial statistics, international settlement data, split China tenants into two categories-urban and rural, people the rural areas are divided into five categories,and the town is divided into seven categories, and describe their economic behavior, refinement of the agricultural departments including the main agricultural products, the farming is11sectors, animal husbandry is7department. With CES and Leontief function to describe the behavior of production, trade of agricultural products sector. According to recent statistics, SAM with detailed agriculture department will be updated to the new2012, then used the weighted cross entropy method to make it balance, and calibration of relevant parameters, In the empirical analysis, Through the simulation results can be seen, drought loss under three scenarios rate have negative effect on macro economic, the decrease of three main grain crop yield also increased the price in a certain extent, increased the volume of imports, thus reducing the food self-sufficiency rate. No matter what kind of situation, the main food crop the potential loss caused by drought has a negative impact on China’s food security in the future, with the increasingly tense situation of future population, resources and environment, which will increase pressure on China’s future food security.Paper is divided into five chapters, chapter1presents research background, purpose and meaning, research review,the innovation points and the structure of the paper, the research review is a summary of the research on computable general equilibrium model and social accounting matrix based on GAMS; chapter2is the CGE model theory based on GAMS language, including the theory the model, computable general equilibrium model of databases that the theory of social accounting matrix; chapter3introduces each module general equilibrium model and social accounting matrix were constructed, and the dynamic mechanism; chapter4is simulation analysis an empirical Chinese agricultural CGE model, including the introduction, data source, simulation of the background analysis of principle, simulation program, the baseline scenario prediction and simulation results;chapter6is the conclusion and research prospect.