Application Research Of Environmental Capacity Prediction Method In The Overall Planning Of The City Population Scale Prediction

In the master plan, theurban population forecast directly affects the urban size.Therefore, ithas become one of the core problems in urban planning. There have beenplenty of researches about the prediction methods of urban population, but it appearsstill lack of systematic study on the urban population forecast on the basis ofenvironmental capacity in urban ecological environment protection area.This dissertation begins with the definition of environmental capacity, and studies theapplication approach for urban population forecast from the four perspectives above.Firstly, this dissertation shows the specific prediction process by applying the typicalmathematical models and calculation methods from the four perspectives on how todetermine the population scale. Secondly, this dissertation studies the feasibility andlimitation of the prediction methods based on specific environmental capacity models.Thirdly, this dissertation states these prediction methods are aimed to the per capitaindex value in practical application. In order to be more scientific, the concept ofenvironmental capacity threshold based on ecological sustainable development areproposed for the comparative study with the urban development prediction indexestablished on the current urban environment. The chosen index system are applied onthe empirical study in E’Zhou, Hubei province. Finally, for the applicability of thedifferent forecast method and the existence question, it has carried on thecomprehensive summary.