The Research On Development Of The Population Capacity In Xi’an And Public Transportation

As the the key city of the China Western Development, with the urbanizationprocess to be quicken, The size of the city is to be expansioned with the development ofeconomy and the growth of the population.According to《The statistics yearbook2011in Xi’an city》, the data is showing that the continued growth trend of the Urbanresidents population in Xi’an from2000to now. And it causes vice effect and a lot ofthe pressure on the city’s public transportation system. The development speed of a cityof public transportation system is slow or fast, it is closely related with the city’seconomic development.And the effects of the size of the public transport systemcapacity of the most direct factors is the city of the working population capacity. But themost direct factors is the capacity of urban employment population which is affect thecapacity of the size of public transport system. At this moment, in xian city, especiallywithin the second Ring Road,the phenomenon of the traffic congestiocan can be foundeverywhere, So conflict that is uncoordinated is formed between the city public trafficsystem development speed and the growth speed of Xi’an city employment populationcapacity. The balance between the uban public transport and the population capacity isrestricted the development of Xi’an, it is turned into restricting factors that is achieved"12.5"plan, also become the important bottleneck of the economic development inXi’an.This paper from the situation and characteristics of Xi’an city’s population capacity,According to the time sequence, choose data in ten years from2000to2010to set up acomprehensive evaluation model of city public traffic system using the SPA.This modelis considering about some influence factors such as transit network density, flat ManZaiLv peak and so on.It is determined the most important factors that is thecapacity of employment population growth which is restricts the public transport systemdevelopment from the optimistic view.And on that basis,In the paper is as the firstindependent variables is GDP of Xi’An,and as the dependent variable is the future ofcity employment population scale in Xi’An,it results is that the economy-employmentreasonable population capacity. Finally, concept of public traffic burden coefficient isput forward in this paper, according to the numerical p rediction population, it draw busnumber reasonable interval in the six kinds of condition in order to quantitative thepressure influence in economic-employment population capacity and public transportsystem operation.The paper is provide dvaluable reference to adjust the population andpublic traffic confliction for the government "12.5plan" policy implementation.