Research On Population Carrying Capacity Of Xinjiang Based On Dual Constraints Of Water And Land Resources And Economy

Since the reform and opening up,the social economy in Xinjiang has undergone earth-shaking changes.However,with the rapid development of the economy and society,problems such as excessive population growth and deteriorating ecological environment have also emerged.This problem has already affected the sustainable development of Xinjiang's population.Population carrying capacity is a measure of the sustainable development of a region's population,and the concept of population carrying capacity has been expanding since its birth.In the past,the study of population carrying capacity considering only resource constraints has been unable to explain the real world reasonably and effectively.With the continuous development of social economy,economic factors play an increasingly important role in the development of regional population carrying capacity.Especially.Therefore,this paper takes Xinjiang and 15 prefectures as research areas,and studies the population carrying capacity of Xinjiang based on the perspective of water and soil resources and economic constraints.Based on the summary of the research results of population carrying capacity at home and abroad,combined with the special regional conditions in Xinjiang,this paper selects three important variables such as water resources,land resources and economic development level as the main factors restricting the population carrying capacity of Xinjiang..After analyzing the dual restraining mechanism and research framework of Xinjiang's water and soil resources and economic development level on population carrying capacity,this paper takes the strong binding effect of Xinjiang water resources and Xinjiang land resources on population carrying capacity and the economic population factors to Xinjiang population carrying capacity.Based on the weak constraint,the water resources population carrying capacity,land resource population carrying capacity and economic population carrying capacity of Xinjiang were analyzed and predicted.Based on the analysis of the interaction between Xinjiang's water and soil resources and economic development level,the comprehensive weighting method combining subjective weighting method and objective weighting method is used to measure the water resources,land resources and economic factors for Xinjiang's comprehensive population carrying capacity.The weight of influence is used to measure and predict the comprehensive population carrying capacity of Xinjiang.The results of this paper indicate that:(1)Xinjiang's water resources population has a total surplus,but the spatial distribution is not balanced.The overall carrying capacity of water resources in Xinjiang is relatively high,but the carrying capacity of water resources in some cities and counties is seriously overloaded.During the inspection period from 2000 to 2016,there were 8 prefectures in the 15 provinces and cities of Xinjiang,and there were 7 prefectures in the state of overload.And the city with low water resources population carrying capacity is mainly concentrated in the economic belt of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain.The distribution of water resources in Xinjiang is separated from the economic center of gravity.Its water resources are difficult to carry the existing population size and support the further development of the economy.(2)The population capacity of Xinjiang's land resources is relatively high,but it is greatly affected by water resources.Xinjiang's land resource population carrying capacity is high in both overall and partial terms,and can carry more population size.There are 7 prefectures and cities in the 15 cities and counties of Xinjiang,and there are 8 prefectures in the state of surplus.There are 8 prefectures in the state of overload.Most of the cities in Xinjiang with rich land resources and population carrying capacity are located in the prefectures with abundant water resources.Water resources are the most important factor affecting the carrying capacity of Xinjiang's land resources.(3)The level of economic population carrying capacity in Xinjiang is generally overloaded and the spatial differences are significant.Xinjiang's economic population carrying capacity is overloaded.There are 7 prefectures in surplus state,and 8 prefectures in overloaded state.The economic and population carrying capacity of Xinjiang is mainly concentrated in the economic belt of the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains.The main reason can be attributed to the reasonable economic structure of these cities and the relatively developed tertiary industry.(4)The increase of population carrying capacity in Xinjiang in the short term is mainly subject to economic factors;the increase in population carrying capacity in Xinjiang in the long run is mainly due to the entry of external water transfer.Water resources and land resources are strong constraints on Xinjiang's population carrying capacity,and it is difficult to make obvious changes in the short term.Moreover,the development and utilization of Xinjiang's land resources is seriously constrained by the lack of water resources.Only by trans-basin and trans-regional water transfer into Xinjiang can we effectively improve the water resources population carrying capacity of Xinjiang,such as the process of “hidden water entering Xinjiang”.The economic factor is a weak constraint factor for Xinjiang's population carrying capacity,and it is greatly influenced by policies,technology and capital.In the short term,it can be greatly improved through subjective efforts,and it is an effective breakthrough to improve the population carrying capacity of Xinjiang in the future..Based on the above analysis results,this paper puts forward some policy recommendations as a reference in combination with the Xinjiang region,in order to improve the population carrying capacity of Xinjiang.