The Research On Ecological Footprint Of The Forest And The Population Capacity In Anhui Province

The current global ecological environment development pursues the way of green ecological civilization and sustainable development. The development of human beings shall on the premise of the sustainable development, to achieve the social economy and human welfare progressing together. The forest in the natural resources is known as the earth’s lungs, playing an important role to balance the global ecology. Protecting forest resources is an important approach to the sustainable development of ecological environment.Ecological footprint model is a research method to measure if the natural resource matching with the amount of human consumption, and to assess the degree of sustainable development. Right now, this method is being cited in many fields, and the research results are significant. The main purpose of this article is to account the capacity of ecological footprint and population of forest resources in Anhui Province, and analyze the degree of sustainable development by the ecological footprint model.Based on reviewing some current researches on the population capacity and the capacity of forest resources in domestic and abroad, this article introduces the two main theoretical support:the population theory and the theory of ecological footprint. Then this article illustrates some related concepts and calculation formulas of ecological footprint model in the whole, and then calculates the forest per capita ecological footprint and the per capita ecological carrying capacity in Anhui province from 2003 to 2013 according to the formulas above and data from Anhui statistical yearbook. Using the two-method ecological evaluation and ecological surplus or deficit and ecological pressure index to evaluate the sustainable degree of forest resources in Anhui province, analyzes the main contribution factors to the forest ecological footprint per capita valueby using the grey correlation method; Finally, the article measures the population of the forest resource capacity in Anhui province on the basis of the ecological footprint model.The main conclusions are as follows:1, According to the biological productive land type of the ecological footprint, the main functions of forest resource are providing forest products and absorbing二氧化碳from burning fossil fuels, these two parts correspond to biological resources account and the carbon footprint account. Biological resources products include fruits, dried fruits, woody oil plants, bamboo and wood. Carbon footprint account includes six fossil energy consumptions, raw coal, coke, crude oil, fuel oil, gasoline, diesel and electricity. Two parameters in calculation, the equilibrium factor and the production factor are 1.41 and 0.95 respectively, and the data is from mou-cheng Liu (2010) calculations.2, The article calculates the per capita ecological footprint of forest resource in Anhui province, two accounts have a large difference. The per capita ecological footprint of the biological resources account increased from 0.035 hm2/person in 2003 to 0.083 hm2/person in 2013;The per capita ecological footprint of the carbon footprint account was 0.787 hm2/person in 2003 increased to 1.9317 hm2/person in 2013; The per capita ecological carrying capacity were 0.0842 hm2/person in 2003, increased to 0.0867 hm2/person in 2013. According to the change of the biological resources Account in 2003 and 2013, it has been in the ecological surplus and the surplus level was decreasing during this period. Carbon footprint account has always been the ecological deficit, and deficit increased year by year, which is seriously overloaded.3, Using the grey correlation analysis method to find the main factors influencing forest ecological footprint per capita in Anhui province. The sorted order is:coke per capita ecological footprint> raw coal per capita ecological footprint> crude oil per capita ecological footprint> diesel per capita ecological footprint> wood per capita ecological footprint> electricity per capita ecological footprint> fuel oil per capita ecological footprint>fruit per capita ecological footprint> gasoline per capita ecological footprint> bamboo per capita ecological footprint> woody oil per capita ecological footprint> dried fruit per capita ecological footprint. Results show that the forest per capita ecological pressure mainly comes from carbon footprint account of energy consumption, biological resources per capita ecological footprint has little effect on the sustainable development of forest ecological environment.4, Based on ecological footprint model, we can calculate that from the year 2003 to 2013, the population that the forest biological resources can hold from 147.85 million decreases to 63 million; the population capacity of Carbon footprint account from 6.59 million in 2003 decreases to 2.71 million in 2013, the capacities differences between two accounts are significant. The biological resource can support the current population well, but the population the carbon footprint in forest resources can support is less than one twentieth of the actual population in 2013.5, Finally, based on the general situation of the basic natural resource and social economy conditions in Anhui province,this article offers suggestions in three aspects: promoting new energy and energy efficiency in the aspect of ecological footprint demand; building ecological forest, optimizing the structure of forest stand in the aspect of the ecological footprint supply; changing people consumption patterns, advocating green low carbon consumption in the aspect of per capita ecological footprint.