Study On Prediction And Protected Compensation Mechanism Of Cultivated Land

China is in rapid industrialization and urbanization, industrialization level off stage of rapid urbanization and increasing the size of land expansion means sharply increasing demand contradiction, the relationship between human more nervous. In addition, the cultivated land protection and national food safety, agricultural science and technology in the current situation of no breakthrough, protect arable land is to protect our lifeline. Determine the scientific, comply with local actual condition of cultivated land protection for cultivated land, land use planning and policy coordination, for economic development and ecological environment protection, and the sustainable development of the city, all have very important and urgent and practical significance. Establish a primary goal of cultivated land protection and rational science is the premise of cultivated land forecast values.Therefore, Establish a comprehensive and scientific prediction method and system of arable land concerning the lowest of cultivated land is very necessary. LiangShan County in Jining, is in a new stage of rapid economic concentration areas,In this particular period of development, utilization and protection of arable land are very typical questions. Determine the scientific, comply with local actual condition of cultivated land protection for cultivated land, land use planning and policy coordination, and Construct regional farmland protection mechanism for a remedy,which all have very practical significance for the work of regional farmland protection.The paper establiahed the prediction model of land holdings of Liangshan county based on the reasonable consideration of index data with fully analysis of the status quo, the food demand conditions, the rate of food self-sufficiency, grain yield, cropping, and the proportion of economic crops using the method of trend extrapolation,gray-scale prediction etc. In view of this, the economics in the use of this article related to the theory of China’s regional farmland protection analysis of the status quo on the basis of the protection of cultivated land in the interests of regions as the basic starting point, from the farmland protection point of view of regional equity and the adjustment of national publicpolicy, Construct regional farmland protection mechanism for a remedy.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1) The paper established the index model for the selected indicators, the amount of cultivated land and the cultivated area. It calculated the index of the first decade of the value of land holdings and found that the index gradually increased over time.(2) The paper predicted the amount of cultivated land of Liangshan County in2015based on the forecasting in the various indicators and indices of cultivated land, Land holdings of Liangshan county is expected to5.08million hectares in2015.(3) The paper established the farmland protection mechanisms for compensation on the conditions of Liangshan county, predicting on the basis of cultivated land, farmland protection areas from the perspective of fairness.With a comprehensive analysis of Liangshan county based on various factors, using factor analysis, trend extrapolation forecasting method, GM (1,1) Grey forecasting method and other methods, This article quantified the amount of cultivated land forecast of Liangshan county in2015,and from the perspective of financial compensation, taking the amount of cultivated land into the protection compensation mechanism of arable land,the establishment of cultivated land-based compensation land protection mechanisms, has certain originality.