Research On Early-Warning Of Internet Public Opinion Crisis Based On System Dynamics

In today's society is a networked society, the increasingly expanding of netizen group and the convenient communication, rapid spread of Internet make the internet become the most commonly used window which reflected of public opinion and the main way that people expressed subjective opinions; With the continuous progress and development of our social and the advances of globalization, the possibility of detonated Internet public opinion crisis is rising, the number of Internet public opinion crisis events for a surge, destructive grows day by day, if do not take effective management methods and means, it will bring negative effect to public opinion security, national stability and harmony. So the study of the Internet public opinion crisis events are paid more and more national attention, the research of Internet public opinion crisis early warning has important significance both on theoretical and practical.In the past study, the researchers used emotional orientation, public opinion barometer, index system, data mining method to early warning Internet public opinion crisis, take local breakthrough, static researches on Internet public opinion crisis events in order to achieve the purpose of early warning. This dissertation used the system thinking on Internet public opinion crisis early warning, considering the Internet public opinion crisis not only a complex problem, but also a dynamic problem, it changes constantly with the passage of time, involved in all aspects of the Internet public opinion crisis event as one large system, study on the interaction of the influencing factors to predict the overall trend of change.Base on the classification of Internet public opinion crisis events, this dissertation take major public security events as the main research object, in depth analysis of the producent, development and extinction progress of this kind of events, combined with the method of system dynamics, from the heat degree of Internet public opinion, do explorative study on all the influence factors which have significant effect on the events and the interaction between them. With the real data of7.23WenZhou emu train accident, this dissertation simulates Internet public opinion crisis events to provides reference to look for the important factors that causes of public opinion crisis events. I hope this dissertation can plays a certain role to improve and enhance government ability that prevent, control and resolve variety of Internet public opinion crisis events effectively.