Research And Application Of The Inflow Station Of The Three Gorges Reservoir Flood Forecast System

The flood volume from Cuitan and Wulong, the inflow station of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), is the main source of TGR flood. After water impoundment of TGR, it's necessary to acquire hydrological information and forecast the flood trend for operation. Based on the flood forecast scheme of Cuntan and Wulong, according to the character of hydrological forecast, this thesis constructs an advanced computer flood forecast platform for Cuitan and Wulong.Based on the Yangtze River upstream flood and rainstorm characters, considering the influence of physical geography, human activity and hydraulic engineering, this thesis explains and analysises the following aspects: station network arrangement argumentation of forecast area, construction of forecast system, selection of hydrological forecast methods and realization of forecast scheme. The selective forecast models are rainfall-runoff correlation model, Xinanjiang model and Tank model.At present, most computer applications of hydrological forecast are from manual methods, so each forecast model is different, which leads to the lower standardization level of software. This system adopts the MVC framework, a distributed network calculation framework, which has respective operations for flow control, work and view. The client is a fat client based on the WEB browser. Flow control and work are respective one part of system in the component form. It makes the work flow convenient to use configuration files, package data sources and configure date dictionaries by xml files. This system separates display layer from work layer, which makes the arrangement convenient and maintenance simple.By trying hard to combine hydrological forecast technology with computer technology, this thesis develops a system running on the network with Visual Studio .NET component programming technology, multi-layer structure and B/S programming technology. With component designing for hydrological forecast mathematic models, analysis methods, interactive modules and programming interface, it's normalized for all public resources used by secondary development, which makes the forecaster establish conveniently a personalization river system hydrological forecast program.Through data collection, station network demonstration, forecast scheme development, software design and coding test, trial operation, and other stages of the work, the system put into production and application. After trial operation in the flood season of 2005 and 2006, the results show that the system has improved the forecast accuracy of the Three Gorges operation and obtained expected achievement because of its perfect functions, good security and stability, high efficiency and easy operation.