According to lots of data collected from optical fiber in the electric power communication system, this paper analyses the use, the application, the failure number and failure reasons of optical fibers. Based on the theory of security risk assessment, this dissertation improves the model and proposes its algorithm. This article expounds the relationship between risk and its three factors(asset ,threat ,vulnerability), and describes the steps of implementation. Then based on cloud model and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), it provides a method of evaluating system performance and makes a risk assessment about the target optical fiber in the electric power communication to have a result of emulation. At last, this paper brings the credibility theory into the research, and resolves the problem that field data is always difficult to get. It provides a new idea for the consideration of both fuzziness and randomness in the electric power communication optical fiber operation. |