Research On Identification And Impact Of Key Elements In Energy Security Based On The Dual Perspectives Of Low-carbon Consumption Behavior And Supply-demand Efficiency

According to XI’s new energy security strategy of “Four revolutions,one cooperation” and the two major ideas of the two-carbon target,in line with the requirements of national energy development policies and future trends under the new pattern,the main research direction and theme of this dissertation is to guide the whole society’s energy consumption to implement carbon reduction,improve the energy supply and demand efficiency,and safely create the energy green transition mode and the effect of ecological orderly development under the dual-carbon target.In this context,in order to make the study of the impact of energy security more prominent,the purposes is to contain and meet the development requirements of the new era,how to take into account the “Carbon reduction” goal of tamping energy security as the core scientific issues,focusing on the three research themes of“Identification of key elements between low-carbon energy consumption and energy security”,“Identification of key elements between energy supply and demand efficiency and energy security”,and “Impact of different key elements on energy security”,this dissertation analyzes the influence of different key characteristics on energy security,and the internal relationship and improvement mechanism between carbon reduction and energy security development.In order to achieve energy supply and demand,consumption behavior,environmental security and sustainable development,it has a certain reference significance and extensive research value.The main focus of this dissertation is as follows:Firstly,based on literature review and organization,as well as the active implementation of the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy in China’s energy supply sector,and the gradual reduction of dependence on traditional energy sources such as coal and oil in terms of energy demand and consumption,and the reduction of carbon emissions and other energy development scenarios,this paper constructs a set of factors that affect energy security from two aspects: low-carbon energy consumption behavior and energy supply and demand efficiency,and constructs a framework for analyzing the impact of energy security in China.Secondly,in the field of low-carbon consumption behavior,in order to strengthen China’s energy consumption behavior towards a safe and low-carbon path,a logic for identifying key elements of energy low-carbon consumption behavior was established.The Ridge regression model and Lasso regression model of machine learning theory were used to identify and analyze the key elements in energy consumption choices and energy consumption behavior tendencies.The radial basis function(RBF)model was used to predict the impact,and further screening and identification of key elements were carried out,providing a good analytical basis for subsequent energy security impact analysis.Once again,in the field of energy supply and demand efficiency,a three-stage DEA evaluation model is used by constructing input-output factors for energy supply and demand,as well as an impact analysis framework for related environmental factors.For example,the DEA-BBC model and DEA-CCR model are used to calculate the initial efficiency value,SFA regression analysis is used to eliminate environmental noise interference,adjust and eliminate environmental variables and random factors,etc.The three-stage DEA efficiency analysis is carried out,and the EM model is used to integrate the efficiency values calculated on the supply and demand sides.The Tobit model is then used for impact regression analysis to further distinguish the importance of various types of key elements,achieve key element identification and element screening and merging,and provide a good analytical basis for subsequent energy security impact analysis.Finally,based on the identification results of key elements from different perspectives mentioned above,energy security level calculation,safety impact analysis,and risk impact analysis will be conducted on key elements and overall processes related to energy consumption behavior,supply,demand,environment,etc.We have conducted energy security level calculations and impact analysis based on EM-TOPSIS and EM-MEEM in the fields of low-carbon consumption behavior and supply and demand efficiency,respectively;Afterwards,based on a dual perspective and different sets of key elements,a two-dimensional framework evidence reasoning model(ERTDF)was used to calculate energy security levels and analyze the impact of key elements on energy security levels.The Fisher discriminant model was used to identify energy security risks and analyze the impact of key elements on energy security risks.The research conclusions of the article mainly include the following three points:(1)The key factors identified from the perspective of promoting low-carbon consumption behavior have a positive driving effect on the achievement of "carbon reduction" in energy security.Specifically,by constructing two hypotheses of energy consumption choices and behavioral tendencies with carbon reduction consumption behavior as the objective function,a significant set of key factors is obtained.The results showed that among the key elements in achieving low-carbon energy consumption behavior,factors such as low-carbon environmental protection promotion,energy-saving and energy efficiency levels,high-level dual carbon awareness,and quality have a more significant impact.Therefore,in order to improve the choice of national energy consumption behavior towards carbon reduction,it is necessary to focus on increasing efforts to promote low-carbon environmental protection concepts,use more cost-effective promotional methods to promote first level energy efficiency level products,actively carry out universal education in consumer behavior guidance,and widely improve national dual carbon literacy and awareness.(2)The key elements identified from the perspective of improving energy supply and demand efficiency have a positive driving effect on achieving carbon reduction in energy security.The results showed that at the level of supply and demand efficiency,there were many factors set,and there was significant heterogeneity in the impact of different factors on energy supply and demand efficiency.Based on the characteristics of heterogeneity and impact differences of these factors,11 key factors were found to have a relatively more significant impact on the improvement of supply and demand efficiency.These 11 key factors were selected based on the analysis of the heterogeneity of the original factors,and some relatively weaker factors were removed.The new combination of factors with better impact performance was separated,which can indirectly improve the research performance of subsequent safety impact analysis.The significance of key factors such as total energy production,demand satisfaction rate,and proportion of clean energy consumption is relatively strong,indicating that these three elements with good dual carbon characteristics play a relatively significant role in improving supply and demand efficiency from the perspective of achieving final energy security.(3)Based on the key factors identified in the previous work that affect the improvement of low-carbon consumption behavior and supply and demand efficiency,the impact on energy security will be demonstrated,and the results of energy security level impact and risk impact from different perspectives will be obtained.Specifically,by constructing a differentiated factor identification system,different model algorithms are used to calculate safety impacts based on the heterogeneity of factors and the non-homogeneity of target impacts.The results showed that the safety level reflected in the field of energy consumption behavior fluctuates greatly,especially influenced by key factors such as the promotion and publicity of internal environmental protection and green policies,and the promotion of the primary energy efficiency market.The energy safety level shows an upward trend with the improvement of these key factors;The hierarchical fluctuation of the security level reflected by the efficiency of energy supply and demand is mainly related to the supply side reform,the strength of the introduction of green dual carbon policies,the COVID-19,the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other different situations at home and abroad,but the key element numerical subject rises with the overall economic situation,and the security level also presents this state;In the comprehensive overall safety identification results,the key elements of safety level and safety risk from a dual perspective have alleviated the impact of special assumed conditions,and overall,China’s energy security has achieved results in policy guidance,reform path,development ideas,risk control,and played a good promoting role.The main innovation lies in:(1)Reconsolidating the research perspective of energy security level measurement and impact analysis,highlighting the purposefulness of energy security research(that is,energy security considers the positive guiding effect of low-carbon consumption behavior under national participation,and the effective achievement of comprehensive efficiency improvement in the supply and demand sectors related to the entire energy industry),and in line with the development requirements of the new era pattern,integrating the important proposition and goal of "carbon reduction" into the impact and risk impact of energy security;(2)The identification of key elements of energy security from a dual perspective adopts scientific methods for reasonable screening,with intermediary influence as the connecting pathway and energy security as the ultimate impact point.Through multiple means of forward and backward inference and model demonstration,the heterogeneity of the impact of each key element is studied,and the value and importance of each element are recombined to form a new set of elements with dual perspective characteristics;(3)The significant innovation in model parameter adjustment and calculation logic is reflected in the improvement of the ERTDF model and the innovation of model application.On the basis of the original formula,the ERTDF model innovatively designed a new logical relationship between variable attributes and formula application to meet the requirements of safety level measurement in this study;At the same time,in order to better identify and analyze the impact characteristics and differences in effects of different influencing factors in the energy security development system,considering the calculation needs under individual impact characteristics,under the leadership of innovative model combination applications,using a mixed subjective and objective model as the main analysis logic,to achieve the reconstruction and innovation of the application logic and analysis framework of the combination model.