The Impact Of Carbon Reduction Policies On Economics In China Under Carbon Peaking And Carbon Neutrality Goals ——Based On Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

For a long time,energy has been the material basis for the survival and development of human society,which has greatly promoted the progress of human civilization.From the current global perspective,energy occupies an important strategic position in the development of the national economy,is the blood of the development of various countries,and drives economic growth.However,the consumption of energy,particularly the massive consumption of fossil energy,while driving economic growth,also increases carbon emissions,bringing the problem of climate change to the world.Since the implementation of the policy of opening to the outside world by China,the economic development of our country has made remarkable achievements,is currently the world’s second largest economy,with the fast development of the economy,a large amount of energy consumption,China’s carbon dioxide emissions are also quite large,is currently the largest carbon dioxide emissions of the country.Climate change threatens the survival of mankind and concerns the fate of human civilization,as China is not only the second largest economy after the United States,but also the country with the largest carbon emissions,China has always actively participated in promoting the solution of global climate change related issues,and actively promoted the implementation of the Paris Agreement,and actively promised to achieve emission reductions.At the conference on 22 September 2020,China announced for the first time the 2060 carbon neutrality target and pledged to strive to achieve carbon peaking by 2030.The formulation of the double carbon target also means that the task of carbon emission reduction cannot be delayed.The main research work of this paper is to simulate China’s economic development under the constraints of the dual carbon target,and on this basis,to analyze the impact of carbon reduction policies on China’s economic growth,that is,to simulate China’s economic growth by building a model including energy elements.This paper uses a model that includes both the home and business sectors.First of all,on the family problem,the utility function including consumption and leisure is constructed;secondly,on the enterprise problem,the energy products are added to the production function of the enterprise as a factor of production,on the basis of use of energy products accompanied by substantial carbon dioxide emissions,this paper assumes that the carbon dioxide emissions are equally proportional to the use of energy products,and assumes that the product and factor markets are perfectly competitive markets and the market is clear;finally,the objective function of maximizing the utility of residents is realized by constructing resource constraints and carbon emission constraints.And solve the equilibrium conditions of each variable to complete the construction of the model.On the basis of the completeness of the required conditions,the model is simulated.First of all,by simulating the use of four different carbon emission policies of no carbon emission policy,carbon emission intensity policy,carbon tax policy and carbon emission ceiling policy,and comparing the steady state value when the economy reaches homeostasis,it is found that the carbon emission intensity policy is better than the other three policies,and when the carbon emission intensity policy is adopted,on the basis of completing the emission reduction target,the proportion of investment and consumption to output increases,and it will not affect the labor market,which is more conducive to the stable growth of the economy.Then,because China’s current main emission reduction ideas are still in terms of improving the technical level and energy efficiency,the economy simulated the impact of exogenous technological progress and the impact of energy product use efficiency,by observing the reaction trend of China in terms of output,consumption,investment,carbon emissions,etc.,it was found that in the absence of carbon emission reduction policies,technological progress and energy efficiency improvement,although it can drive economic growth,but can not play a good role in reducing emissions,with a rebound effect,therefore,under the constraint of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals The involvement of carbon reduction policies is necessary.Finally,policy suggestions for addressing carbon emission reduction targets are put forward in accordance with the results of the study,which provides a decision-making reference for promoting the win-win situation between the implementation of China’s dual carbon targets and economic growth.This article has the following innovations: First,mechanism research innovation.This paper analyzes the impact of carbon emission reduction policies on China’s economic growth under the constraints of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking targets from a multi-dimensional perspective,and constructs a new mechanism analysis framework:carbon neutrality and carbon peaking targets→the carbon emission limit→carbon reduction policies intervene in→ household and enterprise adjustment behavior decisions→the total output,labor,consumption,investment,and energy products→economic growth effect,the mechanism analysis framework is more consistent with the present complex economic circumstances,which can make the policy recommendations given based on this analysis more valuable.The second is the innovation of research methods.Mainly reflected in the application of methods,according to the new mechanism analysis framework constructed,a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model capable of implementing the analysis framework is adopted.