Impact Of Dual Carbon Goals On Water Demand Of Power Sector In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

As the "Capital Economic Circle" of China’s regional development,the Beijing-TianjinHebei region is an important political and cultural city cluster in the strategic deployment of China’s regional cooperative development,with huge electricity and water consumption.However,the current regional water supply and power generation structure cannot achieve sustainable development in the long term.After the introduction of the strategic goal of "peak carbon by 2030 and carbon neutral by 2060"(the dual carbon goals),it is worth exploring whether the production and trade of the power industry in the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region and the corresponding water demand can meet the long-term development needs of the region.Therefore,this paper introduces the dual carbon goals to assess its impact on environmental protection and economic development in the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region.A dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium model is constructed to simulate the changes in the production and trade of the power industry and its water demand in the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region as a result of the carbon reduction policy.Based on this,a comprehensive assessment of the current carbon reduction policy is conducted for environmental protection and economic development.Four carbon reduction scenarios are designed in the model to explore the impact of carbon reduction policies such as carbon tax,investment and renewable energy subsidies.The main findings are as follows:(1)The proposed dual carbon goals are beneficial to the share of renewable energy in regional power generation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The combined implementation of carbon reduction policies could increase the share of renewable energy in electricity generation to 17.2%(Beijing),9.4%(Tianjin),and 33.2%(Hebei),respectively,in 2060.(2)Under various carbon reduction policy scenarios,the carbon tax scenario has the most significant effect on water demand savings in the power sector,while the long-term implementation of the investment scenario is more beneficial to the sustainable economic development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The integrated implementation of carbon reduction policies can minimize the negative impact of carbon tax policies on the regional economy while developing an environmentally friendly society.(3)Carbon reduction policies would significantly increase the inter-regional flow of virtual water in the electricity trade,and the complete water footprint of the electricity industry would not change much(less than 15%)under various scenarios,with the water footprint of the Beijing electricity industry being the most sensitive to carbon reduction policies.(4)The simulation results of the combined scenarios are closest to the carbon neutral state and are able to reduce the gap between Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei regions and carbon neutrality to 10.71%,9.98%and 9.85%,respectively.The assessment of water and carbon reduction effects in the power sector can provide important support for the achievement of carbon neutrality goals and regional sustainable development strategies,and this paper helps to assess the emission reduction policies and water saving effects in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and provide specific policy options for achieving carbon neutrality goals.