Study On The Effect Of The Spatial Structure Of Strategic Emerging Industries On Carbon Emission

Since the reform and opening up,while promoting rapid economic growth,the production factors-and investment-driven economic development mode has also led to problems such as the prominent mismatch between economic development and limited resources and environmental capacity,the low contribution rate of scientific and technological innovation to economic growth,and the overall low-and medium-end of the industrial chain.As China’s economy has shifted from a phase of high-speed growth to one of high-quality development,creating a modern industrial system has become an essential requirement for promoting high-quality development.Strategic emerging industries,which play a directional role,have an overall,long-term,and decisive impact on the quality,structure,and efficiency of future industrial development.Developing and strengthening strategic emerging industries is the only way to enhance the transformation of quality,efficiency,a driver of traditional industries,an inevitable choice for the economy to move towards innovation-driven development,and an important means to achieve green and sustainable development.Focusing on the theme of " Study on the effect of the spatial structure of strategic emerging industries on carbon emission",this paper comprehensively uses multi-source data such as enterprise big data,economic statistics,and geospatial data,and applies a kernel density estimation model and develop the variation coefficient of industrial density to make a comprehensive measure of the spatial structure of strategic emerging industries from two dimensions of "scale" and "form",respectively,It also measures the carbon emission intensity and efficiency of 284 prefecture-level cities in China from 2009 to 2020.Further,based on a fixed effect panel model,this paper empirically verifies the direct impact,differential impact,and impact mechanism of the spatial structure of strategic emerging industries on carbon emission intensity and efficiency.Finally,this paper empirically examines the nonlinear impact and spatial spillover effect of the spatial structure of strategic emerging industries on carbon emission intensity and efficiency by creating a panel threshold model and a spatial econometric model.This paper consists of seven chapters.The first chapter is the introduction,which mainly introduces the background of the topic from three aspects,including the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals",the importance of strategic emerging industries in the development of the modern industrial system,and the position of central cities in the low-carbon transformation.It further explains the research significance,research content,research methods,technical route,and innovation of this paper.The second chapter is devoted to basic concepts and literature review.Specifically,the basic concepts are explained in three aspects: strategic emerging industries,industrial spatial structure,and carbon emission reduction effect.The literature review is primarily intended to classify and comment on the literature from strategic emerging industries,spatial structure,and the environmental effects of industrial spatial agglomeration.The third chapter is devoted to the theoretical basis and mechanism interpretation.The theoretical basis includes industrial layout theory,innovation theory,network city theory and sustainable development theory.The mechanism interpretation explains the mechanism of the impact of the spatial structure of strategic emerging industries on carbon emission reduction in four aspects,namely direct impact,indirect impact,nonlinear impact,and interregional impact.The fourth chapter presents the spatial structure of strategic emerging industries,carbon emission intensity and carbon emission efficiency measurement methods in China’s prefecture-level cities,and analyzes the characteristics and facts such as the evolution of space-time patterns and regional differences in detail.The fifth chapter is about the empirical test and analysis of the impact of the spatial structure of strategic emerging industries on carbon emission intensity,which is mainly divided into basic analysis and extended analysis.The basic analysis uses a fixed effect panel model to test the linear effect of the spatial structure of strategic emerging industries on carbon emission intensity.The extended analysis takes into account the nonlinear effect and the spatial spillover effect of the spatial structure of strategic emerging industries on the carbon emission intensity and makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between the spatial structure of strategic emerging industries and the carbon emission intensity by establishing a threshold model and a spatial measurement model.The sixth chapter is about the empirical test and analysis of the impact of the spatial structure of strategic emerging industries on carbon emission efficiency.In the basic analysis,based on a linear analysis perspective,the paper focuses on the impact of the spatial structure of strategic emerging industries on carbon emission efficiency,which is also analyzed in terms of nonlinearity and spatial spillovers in the expansion analysis.The seventh chapter is devoted to the conclusions and outlook of the study,which summarizes the main findings of the paper,puts forward feasible policy recommendations based on the research conclusions,and points out the shortcomings of this study and the focus of future research.Based on the above contents,the main research conclusions of this paper can be summarized as follows.First,the impact mechanism of the spatial structure of compact strategic emerging industries on carbon emission intensity and efficiency can be divided into four channels,namely direct impact,indirect impact,nonlinear impact,and interregional impact.Specifically,the direct impacts include the scale economy effect,knowledge spillover effect,industrial integration effect,and ecological environment effect.Energy consumption,low-carbon technological innovation,market vitality,and industrial restructuring play an intermediary role in indirect impacts.The spatial structure of compact strategic emerging industries can not only directly affects the intensity and efficiency of urban carbon emissions,but also may have a nonlinear effect through the spatial structure of strategic emerging industries and intermediary variables.The correlation and spatial dependence between cities will produce a "demonstration effect" and a "spatial spillover effect" on neighboring cities,and make the spatial structure of compact strategic emerging industries has an interregional impact on the intensity and efficiency of urban carbon emissions.Second,the spatial distribution of China’s strategic emerging industries presents a pattern of "central cities leading,large coastal agglomeration,and small inland agglomeration",featuring notable spatial agglomeration.In the eastern region,the cities with higher compactness are mainly located in the Shandong Peninsula,the Bohai Rim region,and cluster of cities on the western side of the straits.In the central region,they are mainly distributed in Jiangxi Province,Shanxi Province,and parts of Hubei Province,and in the western regions of Inner Mongolia Plateau,Loess Plateau,Yunnan,and Chongqing.In terms of carbon emission intensity,China’s prefecture-level cities showed a significant downward trend from 2009 to 2020,with an average annual decline of 3.74%.From the spatial point of view,the carbon emission intensity of prefecture-level cities has a prominent gradient feature,with an increasing trend from the southeast to the northwest.The average value of the Gini coefficient for carbon emission intensity in the eastern region is the lowest,followed by the central and western regions.The southern region as a whole presents a descending trend,while the northern region is on an upward path.The regional gap between the east and west,the central and west,and the south and north have gradually widened.Hypervariable density is the main contributor to the difference in carbon emission intensity between the east and the west,and the largest contribution between the north and the south is the regional difference.In terms of carbon emission efficiency,China’s prefecture-level cities showed a "U-shaped" development trend of "falling first and then rising" from 2009 to 2020,and showed a club feature of "small dispersion and large agglomeration" in space.The intra-regional difference in the eastern region is the smallest,followed by the central and western regions.The difference within the northern region is smaller than that in the southern region.The differentiation trend between the east-west,central-west,and south-north regions becomes increasingly evident.The largest contributor to the difference in carbon emission efficiency between western,central and eastern China is within the region,and the difference between the north and the west becomes the primary source of the contribution rate.Third,there is a negative effect between the spatial structure of compact strategic emerging industries and the intensity of carbon emissions.The results of the robustness and endogenous tests support the above research conclusions.The heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that compact spatial structure of strategic emerging industries has a more significant inhibitory effect on the carbon emission intensity of large cities.The compact spatial structure of strategic emerging industries has a significantly larger inhibitory effect on the carbon emission intensity of resource-based cities than that of non-resource-based ones.Compared with coastal cities,compact strategic emerging industrial spatial structure is more conducive to carbon intensity reduction in inland cities.The intermediary mechanism analysis indicates that the spatial structure of compact strategic emerging industries can reduce the intensity of urban carbon emissions through energy consumption and low-carbon technology innovation.In addition,the spatial structure of compact strategic emerging industries has a threshold effect on the carbon emission intensity.When the spatial structure of the strategic emerging industries is itself a threshold variable,there is a single threshold effect.When energy consumption is taken as the threshold variable,the threshold effect test is not passed.When low-carbon technology innovation becomes the threshold variable,there exists a double threshold effect.Finally,through the empirical study of the spatial Dubin model,the paper found that the compact development of strategic emerging industries in the region has a significant facilitation effect on the reduction of local carbon emission intensity,and compact development of strategic emerging industries in the surrounding region has a significant negative spatial spillover effect on local carbon emission.Fourth,the spatial structure of compact strategic emerging industries plays a significant role in improving carbon emission efficiency.After the robustness test and the use of the instrumental variable method to control the endogenous problem,the research conclusion that the spatial structure of compact strategic emerging industries can accelerate carbon emission efficiency remains valid.The results of the heterogeneity test show that the development of compact strategic emerging industries in super-and megacities has a relatively greater positive effect on the efficiency of carbon emissions.Compared with resource-based cities,the spatial structure of compact strategic emerging industries plays a more significant role in increasing the carbon emission efficiency of non-resource-based cities.From the perspective of urban geography,the spatial structure of compact strategic emerging industries is more essential in promoting the carbon emission efficiency of inland cities than that of coastal cities.Further tests of the intermediary mechanism show that the spatial structure of compact strategic emerging industries can have a positive impact on the improvement of urban carbon emission efficiency through market dynamism,industrial structure upgrading,and innovation in low-carbon technologies.Moreover,the empirical results based on the threshold effect model show that the impact of the spatial structure of compact strategic emerging industries on urban carbon emissions efficiency will have a threshold effect along with the changes in the spatial structure of strategic emerging industries,industrial structure upgrading and low-carbon technology innovation.The regression results after taking into account the spatial spillover effect demonstrate that the compact development of strategic emerging industries in the region can not only improve the carbon emission efficiency of the region,but also positively influence the carbon emission efficiency of surrounding areas through the spillover effect.Fifth,by properly regulating the depth and breadth of the industrial spatial structure,enabling green development with low-carbon innovation,fully tapping the potential of urban emission reduction,promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction,improving quality and efficiency,and strengthening the level of coordinated regional development and other policy measures,the country forms a strong support for achieving the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.