| The manufacturing industry in China is facing the dual challenges of industrial structure upgrading and double carbon target constraints.In various provinces and regions,there is a longterm regional heterogeneous match between industrial upgrading and double carbon target,which greatly affects the synergistic realization of the dual targets of national industrial structure upgrading and carbon emission reduction.How to promote the upgrading of manufacturing industry structure while taking into account the improvement of carbon emission efficiency has become an urgent practical problem to be solved.The coupled coordination and prediction of the two systems of manufacturing industrial structure and carbon emission can help to identify the inherent problems in the coordination of the regional manufacturing development with the dual carbon goals,and thus provide a theoretical basis for the coordination and formulation of the manufacturing industrial structure upgrading and carbon emission reduction policies.Based on synergy theory,environmental economic geography and other related theories,this paper sorts out the research results related to the interaction,coupled coordination relationship and influencing factors of industrial structure upgrading and carbon emission efficiency,takes 29 provinces and regions in China as the research objects,adopts the ratio method and Super-SBM model,uses MATLAB to measure the level of manufacturing industry structure upgrade and its carbon emission efficiency in each province and region from 2005 to 2019,followed by analyzing and predicting the degree of their coordinated development and their spatial and temporal evolution characteristics using the coupling coordination degree and gray BP neural network model,respectively,and then exploring the influencing factors affecting their coupling coordination using the spatial Durbin model.Compared with the existing studies,this study further deepens the content of the study,and the method,in view of the small amount of sample data and large differences in this study,the application of various mathematical models such as gray BP neural network makes the calculation results more accurate and reasonable,and enhances the credibility of the research conclusions and policy recommendations.The main findings of this study are as follows:(1)The overall industrial structure upgrading index of China’s manufacturing industry is a long-term uneven and smooth fluctuation trend,showing the overall distribution characteristics of higher concentration in the Yangtze River basin than in other regions.The pattern of carbon emission efficiency is also unevenly distributed in space,from a low-level distribution in the whole country to a contiguous distribution pattern with North,Shanghai and Guangzhou as the center of high value and the Yangtze River economic belt as the middle level.(2)The coupling and coordination degree of China’s manufacturing industry structure upgrading degree and its carbon emission efficiency shows a spatial pattern of "high in the east and low in the west" with obvious differences,and the high coupling and coordination area in the eastern region spreads from the north to the central and western provinces and regions.The development trend of the coupling coordination degree shows regional heterogeneity: both in Beijing has been in a state of improvement,Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces show a fluctuating upward trend,and some western provinces and regions have not changed significantly.There is a certain spatial autocorrelation between the coupling coordination degree of China’s manufacturing industry structure upgrading and its carbon emission efficiency during the study period;the cold and hot spots of the coupling coordination degree show a spatial distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west: the hot spots are clustered in the eastern coastal area of Yangtze River Delta,and the cold spots are concentrated in the western area.(3)It is expected that in 2025,the coupled coordination degree of China’s manufacturing industry structure upgrading and its carbon emission efficiency will continue to continue the distribution pattern of high in the southeast and low in the northwest,and each province and region will further differentiate and show obvious heterogeneity,and the specific performance of the two coupled coordination degrees is as follows: in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle,Beijing alone is high,though it is not strong in driving the surrounding provinces and regions,while the coupled coordination high value areas such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta The central region has a good development trend,and is expected to drive more provinces and regions to improve their coordination in terms of industrial structure upgrading and carbon emission efficiency in the future because of the east-supporting and west-supporting,south-supporting and north-supporting regions;in comparison,the western region has been in the lagging region,among which,Gansu Province will be in a declining situation,and is in a mild disorder with Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang,which is related to these regions’ unreasonable utilization of natural resources,lagging industrial development,lagging development of science and technology and weak adjustment of energy consumption structure and other original foundations are very relevant.(4)Based on the empirical results of the influencing factors,it can be concluded that there exists significant heterogeneity in the impacts of factors on the coupling and coordination between manufacturing industry structure upgrade and carbon emission efficiency across the three major regions of China.In general,the improvement of regional science and technology level,economic development level and openness to the outside world can promote the coordinated development of local manufacturing industrial structure upgrading and its carbon emission efficiency;the level of regional urbanization and the degree of government intervention have a suppressive effect on improving the coupling and coordination of local manufacturing industrial structure upgrading and carbon emission efficiency.In addition,in terms of externalities,the level of urbanization has a positive spillover effect,which can reduce the pressure of energy saving and emission reduction in neighboring regions,while the level of economic development,energy structure and government intervention all have negative spatial spillover effects,which will affect the industrial development and carbon emission reduction efficiency improvement in neighboring regions.According to the above study,this paper suggests that the eastern region should take advantage of regional economic and technological advantages,increase R&D efforts,actively promote smart manufacturing and digital transformation,and focus on accuracy and strength in environmental regulation and enforcement,balancing rigidity and flexibility.At the same time,the eastern region also needs to strengthen cross-regional coordination and cooperation,emphasizing synergy with neighboring regions on policies such as manufacturing development and carbon emission reduction.For the central region,the improvement of regional economic strength at this stage is the fundamental way to promote the upgrade of manufacturing industry structure and the coordinated development of carbon emission efficiency,which should be combined with national industrial policies to build an industrial system to support green development.The western region should strengthen the introduction of advanced domestic low-carbon energy-saving technologies,develop clean energy sources such as wind,light,water and geothermal,optimize manufacturing production processes and improve energy utilization efficiency. |
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