Research On The Spatiotemporal Evolution And Influencing Factors Of China’s Industrial Carbon Emission Intensity

Energy conservation and emission reduction is the inevitable choice of all countries in the world,and low-carbon transformation is the only way for China’s economic development.The rapid development of China’s industry is accompanied by high energy consumption and high emissions.High industrial energy consumption makes China’s economic development face resource and environmental constraints.At present,our country still needs to develop economy vigorously,and it is an inevitable choice to take both economic development and environmental protection into consideration.Under this scenario,it is of great significance to improve carbon emission efficiency and reduce carbon emission per unit of industrial output.However,the industrial development of each region is not balanced,and the carbon emission intensity has great spatial difference.Therefore,it is of great significance to define the spatial distribution difference and dynamic evolution characteristics of industrial carbon emission intensity for formulating targeted regional emission reduction targets.Based on this,this paper analyzes the evolution trend and regional differences of China’s industrial carbon emission intensity based on the national,regional and provincial levels,and reveals the spatial correlation and clustering characteristics of industrial carbon emission intensity based on the Exploratory spatio-temporal data method(ESTDA).A spatial econometric model was established to examine the factors affecting industrial carbon emission intensity and their spatial spillover.Finally,the quantile regression model is adopted to analyze the driving effects of different transition paths combined with the spatio-temporal transition nesting,and the differential emission reduction paths are proposed according to the results.The main research conclusions are as follows: China’s industrial carbon emission intensity presents a phased characteristic of "rapid decline-fluctuation decline-slow decline";With a pattern of "high in the west and low in the east,high in the north and low in the south",the heterogeneity between provinces is obvious.Both absolute and relative regional differences are decreasing,and inter-regional differences are the main reason for the overall differences.China’s industrial carbon emission intensity has significant spatial correlation,presenting a state of coexistence of agglomeration and differentiation.The spatial Durbin model shows that technological progress and environmental regulation have significant negative inhibition effect on industrial carbon emission intensity,urbanization level,population size,energy structure,energy intensity and openness have significant promotion effect,and the relationship between economic development level and carbon intensity is inverted "U".The spatial spillover effects of population size,energy structure and energy intensity are significantly positive;the quadratic term of economic output has significant negative spatial spillover;the spatial spillover effects of urbanization level,openness to the outside world,environmental regulation and technological progress are not significant.The nested model of quantile regression and spatiotemporal transition of carbon emission intensity shows that there are differences between the transition state of carbon emission intensity and the driving mode,and "low quantile constraint","low quantile constraint","high quantile constraint" and "high quantile constraint" coexist,so the implementation path of carbon emission intensity reduction is different.Finally,according to different transition states,different policy recommendations for energy conservation and emission reduction are proposed for different provinces.