| Water is the source of life and an important part of natural resources,which supports the continuous development of economy and society.The "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and The State Council on Comprehensively Promoting the Construction of Beautiful China"(2023)points out that we will comprehensively promote the construction of beautiful China,coordinate the management of water resources,water environment and water ecology,further promote the protection and management of major rivers such as the Yangtze River and the Yellow River,and continue to deepen the battle to protect the clear water.At present,the situation of water resource shortage in China is still severe,and the contradiction between supply and demand is still prominent,which seriously restricts the high-quality development of the economy and society.The rational utilization of water resources and the coordinated development of the economy and society have always been a key issue that China urgently needs to solve.In addition,the uneven distribution of water resources in time and space,coupled with differences in regional economic development’s demand for water resources,leads to significant differences in the supply-demand relationship of water resources under specific conditions,resulting in spatiotemporal differences in water resource constraints.The economic and social development models and water resource development and utilization methods of cities in different river basins will also change with changes in the economic,social,and water resource utilization relationship.In order to explore the differences between the urban economic society and the development of water resource utilization system in different river basins,the differences between the economic society and the development of water resource utilization system in different cities in the same river basin,identify the coordinated development mechanism of urban economic society and water resource utilization system in different river basins,and clarify the coordinated development path,so as to force cities with low water resources utilization efficiency to adjust their industrial structure,optimize their water use structure,improve water resources utilization efficiency,and promote sustainable economic and social development in urban basins.In this paper,194 cities in the Yangtze River,Yellow River,Haihe River and Songhua River basins,which are affected by seasonal temperature and have large differences in water resources supply between the north and the south,are selected as research objects to study the coupling and coordinated development mechanism of socio-economic and water resources use(ESWR)system from 2000 to 2019(excluding the impact of COVID-19).Based on the analysis of the current situation of economic and social development,water resources utilization and water environment,the LMDI method is applied to analyze the influencing factors of water resources utilization,construct a coupled economic,social and water resources utilization(ESWR)system development evaluation model,evaluate the coupling and coordinated development level of the cities in different basins(ESWR)system,and analyze the problems of the coupling and coordinated development.Kernel density non-parametric estimation,traditional Markov chain and global spatial autocorrelation model are used to explore the differentiation of ESWR system coupling in time dimension and space dimension.Principal component analysis and panel threshold regression model were used to quantitatively explore the nonlinear driving effects of different subsystems on the coupling and coordination development of ESWR system,so as to further reveal the internal driving reasons and evolution mechanism under the apparent state of urban coupling and coordination in each basin.The results show that:(1)the coupling and coordinated development degree of urban ESWR system in the basin is basically between 0.6 and 0.8,and the value presents an inverted "U"-shaped change trend,which increases first and then decreases.The main characteristics are: the initial economic and social development level is not high,the water resource utilization efficiency is not high,the coupling and coordinated development level of ESWR system is not high,and the D value is less than 0.5;With the continuous development of economy and society,the utilization of water resources is increasing,and the coupling and coordinated development degree of ESWR system is increasing,and some regions reach a moderate coupling state,with D value between0.6-0.8.In the process of continuous economic and social development,the government invests funds and technologies to improve the efficiency of water resources utilization,the value of water resources utilization system continues to decline and tends to be stable,the coupling and coordinated development degree of ESWR system begins to decline,and the economic and social development and water resources utilization tend to continue to decouple,with a D value between 0.4-0.5.This is a significant positivedecoupling state(high level of economic and social development and high water utilization).(2)From a spatial perspective,the number of cities with good ESWR system coupling and coordinated development status in the Yangtze River Basin in 2019 was significantly more than other river basins,followed by Haihe River basin,and relatively few cities in Songhua River basin and Yellow River basin.The coupling and coordinated development degree of urban ESWR system is moderately coupled in75.56% of the Yangtze River Basin,78.85% of the cities in the Yellow River Basin and75% of the cities in the Haihe River Basin.The coupling and coordinated development degree of urban ESWR system in the upper and middle reaches of the Songhua River Basin is the best.From the perspective of time,since 2000,the coupling and coordinated development status of ESWR system in the four major river basins has changed greatly.In 2000,the coupling and coordinated development of ESWR system in most areas of the four major river basins was in the intermediate coordinated development.In 2019,the coupling and coordinated development level of ESWR systems in various river basins decreased to a certain extent compared with that in 2000,which indicates that the efficiency of water resources utilization in river basins has been continuously improved,and economic and social development and water resources utilization have gradually decouped.From the perspective of alternating changes of system values,the time inflection points of the coupling development state of the four major river basins from "reverse" to "positive"(that is,f(x)>g(x))were respectively Songhua River basin in 2002,Yellow River Basin in 2003,Haihe River basin in 2004,and Yangtze River Basin in 2007,which were closely related to water resource richness and tertiary production structure of the basin.(3)The analysis of the time evolution characteristics of ESWR system coupling coordination development degree through the kernel density convergence method shows that from 2000 to 2019,the center of the kernel density function of ESWR system coupling coordination development degree in the four major river basins has continuously shifted to the right and exceeded 0.6,and the coupling coordination development degree of ESWR system in most cities has been significantly improved.That’s the intermediate level of coordinated development.Since 2000,the coupling and coordinated development degree of the ESWR system in the Yangtze River Basin and the Yellow River Basin has improved rapidly,followed by the Haihe River Basin.In2019,the coupling and coordinated development degree of the ESWR system in the three river basins has peaked in the range of 0.6 to 0.8,that is,most cities have reached a moderately coordinated development state.However,the coupling and coordinated development degree of the ESWR system of cities in the Songhua River basin is slowly improved,and the mobility is low.By 2019,most cities will be in the stage of barely coordinated development.Markov chain results show that from 2000 to 2019,the probability of the coupling coordination development degree of ESWR system at the end of the year and the beginning of the year is above 0.68,showing the characteristics of "club convergence".The mobility of ESWR system coupling coordination development degree is low in the four basins,and most of the transfer of ESWR system coupling coordination development degree occurs in adjacent horizontal states,and the transfer probability is above 0.5.In the steady-state distribution,the proportion of highlevel and high-level cities in the Yangtze River Basin is higher,accounting for 56.67%and 26.42% respectively,and the coupling and coordinated development degree of ESWR system has a more rapid development trend.(4)The spatial effect of ESWR system coupling coordination development degree data on spatial distribution is mainly manifested as spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity.According to the results of global spatial autocorrelation analysis,the Moran ’I values in 2000,2010 and 2019 were 0.61,0.47 and 0.35,respectively,indicating that the coupling coordination development degree of ESWR system has spatial autocorrelation in the whole country,that is,there is overall spatial aggregation.The Moran ’I values in 2000,2010 and 2019 are mainly concentrated in the positionpositive,negative and positive negative quadrants,indicating that the coupling coordination development degree of urban ESWR system in the basin mainly presents high-high aggregation,low-low aggregation and high-low aggregation distribution.(5)The water resource utilization subsystem has a positive driving effect on the coupling and coordinated development level of ESWR system,while the economic and social subsystems show a nonlinear double threshold effect,showing that there are two threshold values,the economic subsystem is-0.5742,0.6243,and the social subsystem is-0.4974,1.6286.The appearance of the first threshold means that under the synergistic action of other systems,the negative driving effect of economic and social development on the coupling and coordinated development level of ESWR system is weakened,and the appearance of the second threshold means that its influence changes from negative to positive driving.Taking the economic subsystem as the threshold variable,the average GDP corresponding to the two threshold values is 19 billion yuan and 309.5 billion yuan respectively,the average GDP per capita is about 16,500 yuan and 63,000 yuan respectively,and the average proportion of the secondary industry is about 42% and 50% respectively.Taking the social subsystem as the threshold variable,the average population corresponding to the two thresholds is 2.71 million and 10.4million,respectively,and the average urbanization rate is about 45% and 54%.The two thresholds generally divide the urban development level of the basin into three stages,in which the coupling and coordinated development level of the urban ESWR system in the first and second stages is continuously improved,and the coupling and coordinated development level of the urban ESWR system in the third stage is benign.On the surface,with the high-level development of social economy,the water resource utilization efficiency is continuously improved.To sum up,in order to promote the coupled and coordinated development of the basin ESWR system,the basin cities should continuously enhance the resilience of economic and social development,continuously change the mode of economic and social development,strengthen the prevention and control of water pollution sources,improve the efficiency of water resource utilization,optimize the allocation of water resources in the basin,promote the protection and restoration of water ecology,and systematically promote the high-quality economic and social development of the basin cities. |
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