The Abundance And Shortage Of Regional Water Resource And Its Impacts On The Coupling And Coordination Degree Of Water-Energy-Food Compound System

The coordinated development of the “water-energy-food” composite system is related to the sustainable development of the regional economy and national sTableility.Under the background of population growth,environmental crisis,climate warming and increasingly scarce resources,the quantitative evaluation and influencing factors analysis of the coordination of “water-energy-food” composite system are the two hotspots of current research.Based on the coupled model and coupled coordination model,this study constructs a water-energy-food composite system coordination evaluation system including comprehensive evaluation index,coupling degree and coupling coordination degree.Quantitative evaluation and spatio-temporal evolution characteristics analysis of the coordination of “water-energy-food” composite system in China from 1998 to 2016,and using weight analysis method to analyze the main factors affecting the coordinated development of regional composite systems;The core status of the system and the high proportion of agricultural water use,the agricultural water and soil resources matching index to reflect the abundance of water resources,to explore the impact of water resources abundance on the coordination of the "water-energy-food" composite system,and to provide protection Corresponding measures for the coordination of water-energy-food complex systems.The main results obtained are as follows:(1)The coordination of China's "water-energy-food" composite system has increased in the research period,and there are differences in space.The comprehensive evaluation index of China's “water-energy-food” composite system showed a volatility upward trend in 1998-2016.The comprehensive development level of the central region was the best,and the eastern region was the lowest.The coupling degree experienced a change after first decreasing and then increasing.It is above the high level coupling stage of level II(from high to low,divided into I~X ten levels),and is evenly distributed in space;the coupling coordination degree is in level IV after undergoing the first reduction and then the improvement.To the lower level of I~X,the level of coordination and development,the local aggregation phenomenon occurs in space,the High-High cluster appears in the middle,and the gathering area is gradually expanding and moving north,Low-Low clusters appear in southern China.(2)In the “water-energy-food” composite system,the main factors affecting the coordination of the “water-energy-food” composite system are the per capita water resources,groundwater resources,agricultural water use,industrial water use,and 10,000 yuan.Industrial added value water consumption,primary energy production,energy transfer,total energy consumption,food self-sufficiency rate,per capita food sales,net food imports and per capita food production,of which the proportion of agricultural water use is coordinated with regional composite systems.The impact is at a relatively high level.(3)The average level of regional water resources abundance in China is 1.019,with large regional differences.The overall distribution is characterized by the fact that the south is higher than the north and the west is higher than the east;the water abundance is High-High.The water resources such as Tibet and Qinghai distributed in the western region are more abundant than those in cultivated land resources.The Low-Low agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in areas where water resources such as northeast and north China are scarce relative to cultivated land resources.(4)Water resources abundance affects the coordination of “water-energy-food” composite systems from water,energy and food security.Therefore,the use of SPSS software for water resources Pearson correlation analysis was carried out with the water resources safety evaluation index,energy safety evaluation index,food safety evaluation index and the coupling degree of “water-energy-food” composite system.The Pearson correlation coefficient calculation results were-0.64~0.79,-0.55 respectively.~0.88,-0.85~0.69 and-0.50~0.47,therefore,the coordination of regional "water-energy-food" composite system can be improved from the perspective of water resources abundance.(5)In order to improve the coordination of the regional “water-energy-food” composite system,based on the regional water resource abundance change category and the correlation between water resource abundance and regional complex system coupling degree,in water resource abundance In areas where the coupling degree of regional “water-energy-food” composite system is positively correlated,the regional structure of cultivated land resources should be maintained,the industrial structure should be adjusted,the water-consuming and high-water-consuming industries should be reduced,and the water-saving technologies should be developed and developed to improve water use efficiency.In areas where the water resources abundance is negatively correlated with the coupling degree of the “water-energyfood” composite system,the regional “water-energy-food” composite system should be improved from other influencing factors while maintaining the sTableility of agricultural water and soil resources.Coordination.