| Research on the matching of water resources utilization efficiency and economic development has always been one of the basic topics of sustainable economic development and water resources security strategies.Since the 1960 s,economic and social development has placed increasing pressure on the water resources environment,and its constraints have become more and more obvious.The concept of sustainable development came into being and has been recognized by all countries and regions around the world.In recent years,the consumption of water resources has been increasing with the increase of population,and the discharge of sewage has also increased significantly.Not only is the matching of water consumption and economic development is very important to the sustainable development of the economy and the sustainable use of water resources.Significance,the matching of sewage discharge and economic development also needs to be paid attention to.A scientific and reasonable evaluation of water resources utilization efficiency is a prerequisite for formulating appropriate policy designs to mitigate the risks of water imbalances and social and economic losses.However,water resource utilization and economic development are both dynamic systems,affected by the relationship activities and environmental interactions between different regions,and have different performances under the influence of different policies in different time periods.In addition to the above-mentioned factors,my country also has its own inherent development problems.The stock of water resources in different regions is inherently uneven,and there is also uneven use in the later economic development process.Therefore,the research on the matching of water resources utilization efficiency and economic development has become an important topic for promoting sustainable economic development and sustainable use of water resources.First of all,the existing research is not accurate enough for the measurement of water resources.The agricultural water consumption and total water consumption measured based on virtual water provide more accurate water resources data for this article;Second,the current water resources evaluation methods are too concentrated on the measurement of water use efficiency,while ignoring the impact of sewage discharge on water resources utilization efficiency;Third,the existing research mainly focuses on the unilateral matching of water resources and economic development,and seldom conducts space-time two-dimensional research on the matching from the three aspects of contribution rate,coordination and relationship.Based on the above analysis,the core problem of this paper is determined as: based on the calculation of virtual water footprint,research on the matching of water resources utilization efficiency and economic development in 31 provinces in my country from 1987 to2017.The research mainly focuses on the following three aspects: First,what is the status of water resources development in different provinces and cities? How have water consumption and sewage discharge changed in the past 30 years? Second,as an indispensable content of economic development,what is the extent to which water resources "drag" the economic development of various provinces,cities and regions? What is the relationship between agricultural water consumption and agricultural economic development? Third,is the relationship between water resource utilization and economic development at different time stages "connected" or "decoupled" ? Is the discharge of agricultural sewage still closely "connected" with the development of the agricultural economy? Fourth,what is the degree of coupling and coordination between water resource utilization efficiency and economic development? What are the temporal and spatial changes in the economic benefits of water resources,water scarcity,and water self-utilization rate? Fifth,what kind of policies can be designed to maximize the use of water resources and economic development to achieve matching and sustainable green development? Based on this,this article first measured the virtual water,import and export water footprint,total water footprint,agricultural,production,and domestic sewage footprints of agricultural and livestock products in 31 provinces across the country from 1987 to 2017,as well as actual GDP,agricultural fixed capital stock,and social fixed Data on capital stock,economic benefits of water resources,scarcity,self-use rate,etc.Based on the obtained data,the tail-efficiency model,decoupling model and coupling coordination model are used to analyze the compatibility of water resource utilization efficiency and economic development in an all-round way.The specific research content and conclusions are as follows:First,by carefully combing the existing research literature,it summarizes the research results and research methods related to virtual water strategy,water resource utilization efficiency and matching evaluation of economic development.Through a detailed interpretation of the virtual water footprint concept,theoretical framework and theoretical basis,we have constructed a technical route,model method and research framework for evaluating the compatibility of water use efficiency with economic development.Second,through the calculation of the agricultural virtual water footprint,total water footprint,and total water quality footprint of my country’s 31 provinces in the past 30 years:The proportion of water consumption for food planting in my country’s agricultural production has dropped from 53.99% in 1987 to 32.73% in 2017,and water consumption for livestock products has continued to rise from 26.59% in 1987 to 54.07% in 2017.This reflects from the side that my country’s "grain Engel coefficient" is declining,that is,the proportion of water used for staple food consumption in total agricultural water is declining.It shows that my country’s social and economic development has been efficient in the past30 years,and people’s food consumption has shifted from the “satisfying” stage of satisfying food and clothing to the “eat well” stage where meat,eggs,milk,and fruits account for more types.In the past 30 years,my country’s per capita total water footprint has increased by665.13 m3/person.At the same time,my country’s total sewage footprint increased by76.262 billion m3,of which agricultural sewage footprint increased by 41.964 billion m3,accounting for 55.03% of the total sewage footprint,which is much higher than the industrial sewage footprint and domestic sewage footprint,indicating the agricultural sewage footprint The growth is serious and urgently needs to be controlled.Third,through empirical analysis of the end-efficiency and time-space differences of water resources utilization in my country’s 31 provinces on economic development: Water resources have a certain restrictive effect on the economic growth of various regions.Due to the "drag" of water resources drag effects,the economic growth rate of the four regions has decreased by 0.23%(east),0.07%(west),and 0.43%(Central)and 0.09%(Northeast).At the same time,in provinces with faster labor force growth,water resources have a greater impact on economic growth;In provinces with low labor growth rates,the drag of water resources on economic growth is mainly affected by the capital stock in the region;In provinces with rapid capital stock growth,water resources have a significant drag on economic growth;in provinces with lower capital stock growth,water resources have a drag on economic growth Smaller.From the overall situation of each region:(1)The economic growth rate and fixed capital accumulation rate in the eastern region are the fastest in the past 30 years.In the past 30 years,the drag effect of water resources on the economic growth of the eastern region has shown a dynamic characteristic of “resistance-promotes-resistance-promotes-resistance” and gradually approaches zero,indicating the degree of dependence of economic growth in the eastern region on water resources Gradually decreases;(2)The change trend of the drag effect of water resources on economic growth in the western region is "resistance-promotes-resistance-promotes-resistance".my country’s implementation of the Western Development Strategy has accelerated the economic growth of the western region.At the same time,it has also attracted the return of part of the labor force.The return of labor has driven the demand for water resources in production and life,which has further led to the shortage of per capita water resources in the western region.The "drag effect" on economic growth becomes greater;(3)The economic growth of the central region is mainly related to capital accumulation.The growth rate of water consumption in the central region is higher than that of other regions in my country.Water resources have always restricted the economic growth of Henan,Hunan,and Shanxi.Economic growth has a continuous drag effect;(4)From 1987 to 2007,oilfields and coal mining in the Northeast were the main economic growth measures in the region.Since 2010,the state has gradually controlled the development of small coal mines in the Northeast,banned some small coal mines,and transformed industries in the Northeast.Ice and snow tourism has developed rapidly.Therefore,the "drag effect" of water resources on economic growth in Northeast China from 2012 to 2017 has been weakened.Fourth,through empirical analysis of the degree of decoupling between water resources utilization and economic development in 31 provinces in my country,and the differences in time and space:(1)From 1988 to 2017,the degree of decoupling between agricultural economic development and agricultural water consumption in the eastern region changed from 8 to a higher level of 10.The consumption of agricultural water resources and the agricultural economy showed a strong decoupling.The central,western and northeastern regions have experienced a relative negative decoupling stage and a relative decoupling stage,and the highest decoupling degree has reached 10 successively;(2)The decoupling relationship between my country’s agricultural economic development and agricultural sewage discharge has experienced a relative negative decoupling stage,a relative decoupling stage and an absolute decoupling stage.In 2017,with the exception of Shanghai,Beijing,Qinghai,Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,Xinjiang,Shanxi,and Liaoning,all provinces in my country reached a strong absolute decoupling of expansion.That is,while the agricultural economy is growing,the amount of agricultural sewage discharge is continuously decreasing,and agriculture has gradually entered the stage of green development;(3)The decoupling relationship between overall economic development and total water consumption has gone through a relative decoupling stage,a relative to absolute stage and an absolute decoupling stage.In 2017,except for Shanghai,Tibet,Xinjiang,Ningxia and Heilongjiang,all other provinces in my country reached relative decoupling;(4)The decoupling relationship between overall economic development and total sewage discharge has gone through a relative negative decoupling stage,a relative decoupling stage and an absolute decoupling stage.In 2017,with the exception of Hebei,Shaanxi and Qinghai,all other provinces reached a strong absolute decoupling of expansion.It shows that while the economy of these provinces is growing rapidly,the amount of sewage discharge is also declining,and the economy is entering a stage of green and sustainable development.Fifth,through empirical analysis of the coupling and coordination of water use efficiency and economic development in 31 provinces in my country,and the differences in time and space:(1)The comprehensive development capabilities of the two major systems,water resource utilization efficiency and economic development,have been continuously improved,and the coordination between the two systems has gradually increased,but the coupling coordination level has not undergone a significant jump.From 1987 to 2017,the coupling and coordination of the four regions showed a trend of eastern region> western region> central region> northeast region;(2)Except for Hainan,the coupling coordination degree of water resource utilization efficiency and economic development in other provinces in the eastern region basically remains above 0.6,with primary coupling coordination and good coupling coordination as the mainstay;(3)In the western region,only Tibet’s water resource utilization efficiency and economic development coupling coordination degree has gradually achieved good coupling coordination since 2004.The remaining provinces have basically been in the alternate range of barely coupling coordination and primary coupling coordination in the past 30 years,and there is no obvious change.improve;(4)The coordination degree of the provinces in the central region has always been in the primary coupling coordination zone.Although the coupling and coordination of water resource utilization efficiency and economic development in each region is improving on the whole,there is no obvious jump,and there is still a big gap from the ideal effect;(5)In the past 30 years,the coupling and coordination degree of water resources utilization efficiency and economic development in the three northeastern provinces has been showing a declining trend,and the relationship between water resources and economic development has become increasingly tense.With the improvement of the level of urbanization and the continuous improvement of residents’ living standards,the growth of resource consumption has been intensified,and the absolute amount of sewage discharge has also increased.Data show that in 2017,the total water footprint per capita in Northeast China was 2585.69 m3/person,and the per capita sewage footprint was 335.75 m3/person.The pressure of water conservation and reduction of sewage discharge pressure in the Northeast It continues to increase.Finally,based on the calculation of the total virtual water footprint and total water quality footprint of my country’s 31 provinces from 1987 to 2017,this paper analyzes the water use efficiency and The temporal and spatial changes of economic development matching.And came up with the following policy recommendations:(1)Optimize the regional industrial structure and economic layout;(2)Strengthen the development and utilization of unconventional water resources;(3)Deepen water price reform and water supply by quality;(4)Change water-saving thinking and establish a water-saving society;(5)Strengthen water-saving work in the agricultural field vigorously;(6)Improving laws and regulations to ensure the sustainable use of water resources. |
