Analysis Of The Measurement Of Imbalanced Regional Economic Development And Its Influencing Factors In China

The report to the 19 th national congress of the communist party of China pointed out that "socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era,and the principal contradiction in Chinese society has been transformed into the contradiction between unbalanced and inadequate development and the ever-growing needs of the people for a better life." In the general trend of regional economic development,high-quality balanced development is fundamental.Due to the different conditions of resources,technology,talents and policies,different regions lead to the imbalance of regional economic development,which includes the imbalance between urban and rural areas,the imbalance of income,the imbalance of regional development and so on.Proper economic imbalance among regions is conducive to the division of labor and cooperation among regions.For underdeveloped regions,the continuous expansion of the gap will slow down the economic development of the region,which will not be conducive to the effective allocation of resources,and will lead to regional differences in income distribution,which will ultimately make the overall level of social welfare fall continuously.In recent years,with the implementation of policies such as "the great development of the west","the rise of the central part" and "the revitalization of the northeast",the imbalance of regional economic development in China has attracted extensive attention of our government and all walks of life.The degree,development trend and influencing factors of this imbalance have always been a hot issue in theoretical circles.It is of great practical significance to study the imbalance of regional economy in order to achieve the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way and striding forward to a moderately developed country.In this paper,the imbalance of regional economic development as the research object,through combing the relevant literature at home and abroad,laid the theoretical foundation of this paper.Different from the traditional research perspectives in the three regions of east,central and west,this paper establishes econometric models including time series,panel data,etc.from the perspectives of inter-provincial and eastern,central,southwest,northwest and northeast regions,by combining normative and empirical analysis,qualitative and quantitative analysis,and comparative analysis.The size,trend and influence mechanism of regional economic development imbalance have been studied in detail.In the measurement and analysis of imbalance,the paper uses single index and multi-index comprehensive evaluation to analyze and decompose the level of regional economic development,and on this basis,from the absolute difference,relative difference,Gini coefficient,Theil index and other perspectives,the size and the source of imbalanced development of inter-provincial and five regional economies in China is advanced.In the study of the convergence of regional economic development imbalance,the convergence theory of economic growth is introduced into the study of the convergence of imbalance for the first time.According to the turning point of the imbalance measure,1998-2017 is divided into several small sample periods to test ? convergence,absolute ? convergence and conditional ? convergence,respectively.Through analyzing the absolute difference,relative difference and growth rate of regional and inter-regional imbalances,the convergence interval,convergence rate and exponential steady-state value of regional economic imbalances are obtained,which can be used to examine whether each region is in a period of balanced development.In the analysis of the influencing factors of imbalance,immovable and movable factors are selected.The influencing mechanism of these factors on regional economic imbalance is obtained by qualitative analysis.Time series model and panel quantile model are used.This paper makes a detailed analysis of the magnitude and trend of the imbalance of economic development among provinces,five regions and five regions.Combining with the qualitative analysis results,we can get some policy suggestions to reduce the imbalance among regions and achieve coordinated development.Through the research,this paper mainly draws the following conclusions:In the past 20 years from 1998 to 2017,the unbalance of the development level of inter-provincial and five regional economies in China has shown a trend of increasing-decreasing-increasing "N" type fluctuation,but overall it is declining.By decomposing the Theil index,we can find that this imbalance is more due to regional differences.The imbalance in the eastern region is higher than that in the other four regions.The imbalance in the central region is relatively low,the imbalances in the five regions are generally decreasing,but the eastern and central regions have increased significantly in recent years.From the view of the convergence and divergence of imbalance,there are ? convergence,absolute ? convergence and conditional ? convergence in different periods of time for inter-provincial,inter-regional and intra-regional imbalances in China,and the convergence rate of imbalance has accelerated significantly in recent years.The industrialization rate of constraint in conditional ? convergence has restrained the imbalances' convergence.Urbanization rate promotes the convergence of imbalance.By calculating the convergence rate and steady-state value,it is found that only the central region has a balanced development period.The influence of movable factors on regional economic imbalance is more significant,while immovable factors is lack of economic activity,the effect of policy factors and scientific and technological factors is not significant for inter-provincial,inter-regional and intra-regional in China.Capital factors promote the expansion of imbalances,labor and industrial structure factors inhibit the expansion of imbalances.To reduce the imbalance in the region,the eastern region mainly relies on improving the level of science and technology;the central and northwestern regions mainly rely on policy,labor and the optimization of industrial structure;and the southwest region mainly relies on funds,labor and industrial structure.Northeast China relies mainly on funds,industrial structure and scientific and technological level.Finally,according to the results of theoretical and empirical research on the imbalance and causes of regional economic development in China,combined with the regional policy differences,institutional differences and development basis of the country,policy recommendations are put forward to narrow regional economic differences and promote balanced and coordinated development.