The Regional Carrying Capacity Synthetic Prediction And Evaluation In The Economic Zone Of The Yangtze River Delta

Yangtze River Delta area is the core zone of China's economic development. The regional carrying capacity comprehensive evaluation and prediction is great significance to China's social, political and economic sustainable development. In this dissertation, with three provinces and one city (Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian) as the analysis samples, the author utilized four period (the 1970s, the 1980s, the beginning of 21st and the year of 2005) of remote sensing survey results as well as geographic, economic, social, cultural, and economic data of the same period to analyze the carrying capacity of the study area.The regional carrying capacity evaluation system of Yangtze River Delta area was built, which consists of supporting capability, assimilating ability and adjusting capability. To acquire the evaluation index in this system,multiple soil types were extracted, water and traffic lines were identified and the density lines were calculated, precipitation and wind speed raster data were re-classified, desertification area and wetland were identified . A spatial database model was established on the basis of the index system, and ecological footprint and principal component analysis method were employed to analyze various regional carrying capacity indexes from the perspective of time and space.In this paper, The broad Yangtze River Delta economic zone's assimilation capacity, ecological footprint, ecological resources supply capacity, support capacity, regulation ability, regional carrying capacity, bearing regional state and ecological deficit were analyzed for the first time. The carrying capacity data of four periods in the Yangtze River Delta region was accessed, and the overall ranking followed by Shanghai> Jiangsu> Zhejiang> Fujian. The most serious ecological deficit area is in Shanghai and Jiangsu Province, followed by Zhejiang, and Fujian Province relatively better. The area in serious overloading state of Shanghai get up to 92 percent and Jiangsu Province nearly 50 percent, while Fujian Province's non-overload area is the largest, reaching more than 20 percent. Geographic simulation system applications was extended, based on the neural network cellular automata theory, the absolute load simulation and forecast of Yangtze River Delta region were carried out. The forecast result from the year 2005 to 2040 shows that the future carrying status will get worse: less than 3.59 percent area of the whole region under the no overloading state and the overloading area changing from 28.36 percent in 2010 to 45.21 percent in 2044. The carrying capacity situation of the Yangtze River Delta region can not be optimistic.According to the regional carrying capacity status and the prediction result, the author puts forward the following proposals: Shanghai should put great efforts to improve the development capacity, develop rail communication, increase the government input and improve the environment. Jiangsu province should focus on improving land management, industrial structure, resources utilization and environmental monitoring, and overcome the problem of uneven development between the north and the south in the province. Zhejiang province should strictly control the size of the population, improve the quality of people, increase the Scientific and technological progress index, and build the industrial structure with less consumption of resources. Fujian province should put more efforts to control environmental pollution, accelerate industrial restructuring and upgrading, in order to reduce ecological environment pressure during the economic development and strive to build a resource-saving society.