The Research Of Model For The Two-dimension Water Rights Allocation In Watershed

Shortage of water resources and deterioration of water environment have became the main problems on building of a water-saving society, which is very important to construct a well-off society in an all-round way in China. To build a water-saving society is a system construction, which is a water rights management system based on the theories of water rights and water markets. Based on the operation of China's water rights management system, considering water quantity and water quality cannot be separated, this dissertation focuses on the research of water rights allocation at the watershed scale from the state to the regions.Based on the analysis of the research on water rights, water rights allocation and water rights allocation models, a unified allocation of water and water environmental capacity has been proved to be necessary and scientific from many facts, the definition and the structure of the two-dimension watershed water rights are presented.Then some extension studies on the models of water rights allocation are carried out based on the two-dimension watershed water rights allocation as follows,(1) Water use efficiency models for two cases of the two-dimension watershed water rights are not defined clearly and are defined clearly are built respectively to demonstrate the necessity of water right initial allocation. The model results show that the total Nash equilibrium quantity of water usage and pollutants emission in the case of the two-dimension watershed water rights are defined clearly and water right market has been established, is less than which in the case of the two-dimension watershed water rights are not defined clearly.It also shows that the clear two-dimension watershed water rights are conducive to protect the interests of all water users, reduce the conflicts of water utilization between each water user. Therefore, the water quantity and quality crisis can be alleviated to achieve sustainable development.(2) The mathematical models for the two main mechanism-centralized mechanism and market mechanism of water rights reallocation are established respectively to analyze the problems existed in the two mechanisms.After weighing the advantages and disadvantages of the two main mechanisms, the layered-mixed mechanism with the combination of centralized mechanism and market mechanism is constructed as the mechanism of watershed water right reallocation. Then, the mathematical model for the layered-mixed mechanism shows that, based on the balance price system, the layered-mixed mechanism not only can maximize the overall benefits and address some shortcomings such as information is not accurate, but also can reflect the decision behavior of the individuals and improve the efficiency of water utilization.(3)Water demand forecasting models for different users are set up. According to the characteristics of water consumption, GM is applied to simulate and forecast different water demand data series.The results show that GM(1,1) of grey oscillation sequence based on the functional transformation can reflect the oscillation of a regional water demand effectively and improve the accuracy to simulate and forecast a regional water demand data series, and GM(1,1) model of integrated optimizing its background value and initial condition has a high precision to simulate and forecast a industrial water demand data series.(4) The two-dimension watershed water rights initial allocation model is established. Firstly, the economics, society and environment objective functions are quantified. Secondly, some constraint conditions are set up, including water supply capacity, water carrying capacity, water demand, pollutants emission, coordinated development, non-negative variables and so on. Therefore, the model is a good example of the principles and the decision making mechanism of the two-dimension watershed water rights initial allocation. Due to the multi-objective, multi-associated, nonlinear and separable characters, large scale systems optimization and hybrid genetic algorithms are used to solve the two-dimension watershed water rights initial allocation model. Finally, the application of the model and its algorithm are illustrated with the case of the two-dimension water rights initial allocation in Biliu river basin at different assurance rates in2010.(5) The two-dimension watershed water rights trading decision-making model is set up. In order to reflect the layered-mixed mechanism and the decision making mechanism of the two-dimension watershed water rights reallocation, supposing the watershed management agency is the upper decision-makers as the planning, controlling and coordinating center of a river basin, and each user is the lower decision-makers which has a relative autonomy,bi-level programming approach are applied to the two-dimension watershed water rights trading decision-making model between the regions.Finally, the application of the model is illustrated with a numerical calculation. The results show that the model not only can reflect the process of optimize decision in the two-dimension watershed water rights trading, but also can coordinate the relationship between the overall interests of watershed and the local interests of each user, so as to achieve the optimal allocation of the two-dimension watershed water rights.