| Rapid population rise along with improved standards of living, urbanization and industrial growth have led to increased demand, competition and conflicts among different water users, therefore the future development of water resources will be more difficult due to the limitations of hydrology, topography and geology. In order to relief the conflict of the water supply and demand, and lessen the matters about society, economy and ecological environment caused by water shortage, to reform the existing water resources management system is a an inevitable approach to solve the urban water problems. Consequently, referring to the research results at home and abroad about water market, based on the urban water demand forecasting, the urban water market is studied, and the urban water security is evaluated. The main research and results are as follows:(1) The study of a long term forecasting model for the urban water demand. Urban water demand is the basis of the development planning for water-supply and water-saving. In the paper, the factors correlative with water demand are selected, then the trend and cyclical components of the factors are calculated by method of Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter. Then the multiple linear regression method is applied to simulate the trend components, and the fuzzy neural network is built based on the cyclical components, and then the two models are combined to forecast the urban annual water demand. In order to illuminate the model, it is used to forecast the annual water demand of Dalian against actual data records from 1980 to 2007. By comparing with the traditional methods, the preferable model accuracy demonstrates the effectiveness of fuzzy neural network and multiple linear regression based on HP filter in forecasting urban annual water demand. The results show the model is reliable and feasible, and it can provide some references for urban water resources management.(2) The study of urban water rights optimal allocation. Water rights allocation has great meanings for water resource protection, ecological environment protection, water resources rational utilization, water market development and so on. Aimed at the different water resources, the water rights are divided into two types, the traditional water rights and the non-traditional water rights. For the traditional water rights, five allocation principles for water rights allocation of transferred water are proposed. On this basis the multi-object optimal allocation model is established for regional transferred water rights. The domestic water process water and ecological water are comprehensively considered in the model and it fully addresses fairness effectiveness and sustainable development of water rights allocation. In order to solve the model the multi-object optimization model is transformed into a single-object one with a weighted method by the determination of the weights of objective functions. The weights of objective functions are determined by the comprehensive weight method. The objective weights are obtained using the entropy weight method and the subjective weights are obtained by analyzing the intention of decision-makers. The weights of the comprehensive decision are obtained by the linear weighting method. The model not only considers the real situation but also the intentions of the decision-makers which makes it more flexible. Finally the model is applied to water rights allocation in Dalian. The result shows that the model is valuable in practice and it can be used to guide the planning of regional water transfer engineering and the optimal allocation of water resources.(3) Urban water rights trade and the pricing model study. Water rights trade is the core to innovate water resource allocation system, and it is also an effective approach to allocate water resources. In the paper, the basic condition and the trade principle of urban water rights trade are analyzed, and the water rights trade models under the government compensation and the quasi-market are established. For the model of government compensation, the pricing model is established based on the two-part model including of investment for water saving and compensation fee. The agricultural water resource value and compensation fee are discussed mainly, then the corresponding model is proposed respectively. For the model of quasi-market, the bidding strategies and benefit functions of both trade sides are proposed, then the cooperative game model for water rights trade is established, and the Nash bargaining solution of the model is given. In order to illustrate the models, the models for water rights trade between industry and agriculture is developed in Dalian.(4) Urban water resources optimal allocation based on the water right trade between agriculture and industry. Refer to the existing research results, and considering the water right trade between agriculture and industry in Dalian, the allocation model for water resource is established, which target is to minimize the water shortage and the total water cost. Finally, the model is applied to allocate Dalian's water resources in 2010 and 2020, and the different allocation schemes are gotten under the conditions of current water supply capacity, water rights trade between industry and argricuture and inter-basin water transferring. The influences of the water rights trade and inter-basin water transferring are analyzed.(5) The comprehensive evaluation of urban water security is the premise and foundation to build the strategy and planning and make the decision for urban water security. After analyzing the meaning and characteristics, the qualitative and quantitative indexes are selected for urban water security evaluation, and the comprehensive evaluation index system of water security is established. Then the indexes are graded and the grade standard values of each index are determined. Due to the fuzziness of the water security system, the multi-hierarchy variable fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is built. Finally, the model is applied to evaluate the urban water security of Dalian. The case study proves that model and method are reasonable and feasible, and the evaluating results can provide reference for adjusting the urban water utilization structure and working out the water resources management and planning.Lastly, the conclusions and the problems need to be further studied are given at the end of the dissertation.
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