| Water resources are irreplaceable important natural resources and environmental re-sources for human survival.With the continuous advancement of social modernization in China,research and discussion on water rights in the scientific field emerged as the times re-quire.In recent years,more and more research has been done on initial water rights allocation and water rights trading,which provides a new way to solve the problems of water shortage and deterioration of water environment.In order to enrich the theory of optimal management of county water rights and improve the modernization level of county water rights management.Based on the model and experi-ence of water rights management at home and abroad,and on the theoretical basis of property rights theory,water resources value theory,water resources economics and complex adaptive system theory,this paper uses multidisciplinary comprehensive research methods,starting from water resources science and economics,to discuss the current situation and existing problems of water rights management in Wenshang County,Jining City,Shandong Province,a pilot county of national water rights reform.This paper analyses the problems,carries out the initial water rights allocation in Wenshang County,explores the key technology mode of water rights trading,and explores the decision-making of trading willingness.By consulting the literature and professional books related to water rights allocation and trade,and carrying out quantitative analysis based on the collected data,the main achieve-ments of this paper include:(1)According to the local water resources conditions,the most stringent water resources management system and the total control index of water consumption in Wenshang County,combined with the structure and development of social and economic construction,the re-gional water rights,industrial water rights and agricultural water rights in Wenshang County are reasonably calculated and allocated.Especially in the allocation of agricultural water rights,considering the existence of groundwater overexploitation area,the average water con-sumption per mu of agricultural irrigation water was reduced appropriately,thus ensuring the completion of the goal of groundwater pressure extraction.The results show that the total ini-tial water right allocated to Wenshang County is 192.969 million m~3 and the total water occu-pancy control index is 90.2%,which meets the requirements of the most stringent water re-sources management system.Among the initial allocation of water rights in various industries,the allocation of water rights in life,production and ecology accounted for 12.4%,86.0%and1.6%of the total allocation of water,respectively.Among the initial allocation of water rights in production,the proportion of primary,secondary and tertiary production was 93.3:6.3:0.6,reflecting the characteristics of Wenshang County as an agricultural county.(2)This paper uses Complex Adaptive System theory and economic principal equation to build decision-making model.By comparing the correlation between water-saving cost and water-saving income,the paper analyses the trading willingness and water volume of both parties in water rights transaction.The results show that the tradable water quantity in Wenshang County includes the water saving potential and reserved water right,which is366.33 million m~3,and will meet the transaction demand within the validity period of the wa-ter intake permit.(3)At the same time,the SPSS model is used to fit the Cobb-Dauglas production function expression to obtain the elastic coefficient of industrial water and determine the range of transaction water price.The results show that the affordable range of water rights transaction price of water rights purchasers is[2.11~2.64,6.3]yuan/m~3,which is slightly higher than the comprehensive industrial water price of Jining City,which is in line with the actual situation,and the results are reasonable and reliable,and can provide the basis for transaction decision-making. |
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