Analysis Of China’s Export Potential Of Agricultural Products To Main Countries Along The "Belt And Road"

In 2018,the United States launched a trade war against China,which had a serious impact on the development of Sino-US trade.Among them,agricultural products are the important targets to be taxed and mainly focus on aquatic products,fruits and vegetables.As a result,the export of this part of Chinese agricultural products to the United States has been hindered,resulting in a serious decline.Therefore,whether China’s tariff-levied agricultural products can achieve export transfer and where to transfer has become an important issue to be studied.Tariff-levied agricultural products are the main agricultural products exported by China to the world.According to the export scale,the top 10 countries,except Japan and South Korea,are distributed along the "Belt and Road "(Abbreviation;the B&R),and the countries along the B&R provide a good basis and rare opportunities for China’s export of tariff-levied agricultural products.In addition,after the proposal of the B&R,the trade ties of agricultural products between China and the countries along the B&R have become closer,and the B&R has become an important market for optimizing the geographical pattern of China’s agricultural products export.Therefore,this thesis studies the export potential of China’s tariff-levied agricultural products to the main countries along the B&R under the background of Sino-US trade friction,in order to provide targeted suggestions for the export transfer of agricultural products that are blocked and to further promote the export of agricultural products in China.On the basis of literature review and theoretical analysis,this thesis combs the process of American taxation on China and analyzes the characteristics of the list of products taxed at200 billion US dollars.it also analyzes the characteristics of China’s agricultural exports to the United States and countries along the the B&R under Sino-US trade frictions.Secondly,based on the Rotterdam import demand system model,this thesis estimates the substitution elasticity of China’s tariff-levied agricultural products to export competitors in the main markets of countries along the B&R,and estimates the import demand elasticity of 36 countries along the B&R by using the method of import demand elasticity of Soderbery(2015).Finally,the relative scale of tariff-levied agricultural products imported by 36 countries along the B&R is calculated,and combined with substitution elasticity and import demand elasticity,the short-term export potential of China to 36 countries along the B&R is estimated.The main conclusions of this thesis are as follows:(1)in the markets of 36 countries along the B&R,China’s tariff-levied agricultural products have a certain substitution ability for similar agricultural products of Argentina,France,the United States,the Netherlands and Germany,especially in Italy,South Korea,Vietnam,Indonesia,the Philippines,Malaysia,Russia and Singapore.(2)the elasticity of import demand for tariff-levied agricultural products in 36 countries along the B&R is flexible,indicating that China’s tariff-levied agricultural products will increase with lower prices.(3)China’s tariff imposed on agricultural products to countries with greater export potential of the B&R is concentrated in Southeast Asia and Europe.According to the research conclusion,this thesis believes that China should reduce production and transaction costs,promote the export transfer of agricultural products,strengthen trade facilitation cooperation,break down agricultural export barriers,give full play to the positive role of RCEP to expand agricultural exports to ASEAN,and take various measures to ensure China’s food security.