A Study On The Trade Potential Of Agricultural Export—Take The Silk Road Economic Belt And China As Examples

Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the idea of rebuilding the Silk Road in 2013, which has huge market potential and holds an important position in the world economy due to the economic chain spans Europe, Asia, Africa. As an advocating country of building Silk Road economic belt, China has to play a leading role in the construction of the economic belt. And we are a large agricultural country, so agricultural products trade will inevitably become cooperation priorities of the new Silk Road Economic belt. Therefore analyzing the impact factors about agricultural products export trade between China and the countries of the Silk Road belt and mining trade potential are very important for the development of the Silk Road economic belt and the rise of west of China.Firstly, based on many literature from home and abroad about the influencing factors of agricultural products trade research and potential measures research, this paper make a simple analysis about the current situation of export trade between China and the Silk Road economic belt countries, then used the revealed comparative advantage index and trade complementarity index and trade union index to making a specific analysis. The results show that there is no comparative advantage between our country and the economic belt countries from an overall perspective and the degree of complementarity is not high. However, our country has a comparative advantage over every separated economic belt country, and it also has complementary agricultural categories. Moreover, the trade tightness of many complementary agricultural categories are very weak, and thus it has a great improvement space about agricultural products trade between China and the Silk Road economic belt countries.Secondly, this paper analyzed the impact factors of export trade volume between China and the Silk Road countries based on the gravity model. The results show that whether the countries in the same integration organization or not is the biggest factor to affecting the agricultural products exports between China and the Silk Road countries, other factors include the GDP of importing country, the distance between countries, whether neighboring or not, our countries’ GDP as well as the importing country’s per capita income, which the importing country’s per capita income has a negative correlation about our country’s export volume.Thirdly, this paper calculated the potential numerical of agricultural products export volume between China and the Silk Road countries and then compared with the actual trade volume, found the agricultural export trade of other countries are not saturated, except for Iran and Kyrgyzstan.Finally this paper gave the appropriate cooperation suggestions according to trade potential of different countries so as to release the potential of China’s export trade greatly.