Study On The Potential Of Agricultural Products Trade Between China And Countries Along The Belt And Road

In the context of economic globalisation,China has proposed the "One Belt,One Road" initiative to promote regional economic integration.With a large number of countries along the "Belt and Road",most of which are developing countries,trade in agricultural products is an important direction for trade cooperation between China and other countries in the world and has great potential for development.China is a large agricultural country,and with an arable land area of 10%of the world to support 1.4 billion Chinese people,China is unable to meet the demand for agricultural products,and agricultural trade plays an important role in ensuring people’s basic living standards.Therefore,it is important to study the potential of agricultural trade between China and the regions along the "Belt and Road" and to make policy recommendations to promote the development of China’s agricultural trade.The research in this paper is divided into two parts.Firstly,the current trade situation and trade relations between China and the countries along the Belt and Road are analysed,and the current trade situation is studied from two perspectives:aggregate analysis and variety structure analysis,and the trade relations between the bilateral regions are measured through international market share,demonstrated comparative advantage,trade integration index and trade complementarity index,and it is found that the bilateral regions have certain development potential.Then,the explanatory variables are selected based on the analysis of the current situation,the factors influencing the trade potential are analysed through an extended gravity model,and finally the trade potential values are measured and the countries are classified.The paper mainly draws the following conclusions.Through the study of the current trade situation,it is found that China and the countries along the route generally show a high concentration of trade regions and uneven trade varieties,with trade regions concentrated in Southeast Asia and trade varieties dominated by category 0 and category 2,and the trade structure needs to be optimised.In terms of trade relations,it shows the co-existence of competition and complementarity,with stronger complementarity,and greater potential for bilateral trade development.An analysis of the factors influencing trade potential shows that the agricultural output value of the exporting country,the GDP of the importing country,the size of the population,the distance,whether or not the same WTO,and whether or not an FTA is signed have a significant impact on the scale of agricultural trade.The trade potential values show that there are 28 countries with great potential and potential for development.Based on the research results,policy recommendations are put forward,including improving the trade structure and enhancing the overall competitiveness of agricultural products;making full use of the complementary advantages between China and the regions along the route,highlighting key regional varieties;and strengthening cooperation with countries with great potential to cultivate new trade growth points.