| In recent years,the international multilateral trade system has been in a predicament,and the regional economic cooperation is rising.Besides,the international trade rules are facing new challenges.Under this background,in order to meet the urgent need to build a community of destiny,and improve the level of regional cooperation,"The Belt and Road"(B&R)initiative came into being in 2013,which greatly improves the level of economic cooperation between China and the countries along B&R.China is internationally recognized as a large agricultural country,and most of the countries along B&R are developing countries with abundant agricultural resources,so the agricultural products trade is an important field of economic and trade cooperation between the two sides.According to UN COMTRADE(the United Nations commodity trade statistics database),the agricultural products trade value between the two sides was from $7922 million in 2001 to $65031 million in 2016,an increase of 7.21 times,and accounting for 28.23%of the total world agricultural products trade of China.Therefore,how to make full use of the potential of bilateral trade of agricultural products with the implementation of B&R initiative,has become the focus of strengthening bilateral economic and trade cooperation.This paper makes an empirical study on the basis of theoretical research of agricultural products between China and the nations along B&R.Firstly,the background was introduced.Through the analysis of existing literature,an empirical study on the potential of agricultural products trade between China and the countries along B&R was found to be insufficient;Secondly from countries along the two angles of the overall and sub area,analysis of the characteristics of agricultural products trade between China and the countries along B&R from 2001 to 2016,is divided into two aspects:trade volume and trade variety.The analysis found that the total trade volume of agricultural products between the two sides increased rapidly,and the trade products were concentrated in the first category(food and live animals)and the second category(non-edible raw materials)of agricultural products;Next the trade relations between the two sides of agricultural products is studied,using the two indicators of the international market share and the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index to analyze the competitiveness of the two agricultural products,and using the trade combination index,trade complementarity index to analyze the trade complementarity of the two sides’ agricultural products.The found is that compared to competitiveness,the complementarity is stronger.Based on the above analysis,this paper joined new factors into the trade gravity model including the international logistics performance index,the ratio of agricultural added value to GDP,and whether belongs to the APEC,etc.The data is from the agricultural products trade between China and the countries along B&R from 2007 to 2016.The conclusion is that geographical distance hinders the bilateral trade volume of agricultural products,while GDP,the logistics performance index,proportion of agricultural value added to GDP,and both are APEC economies have a significant role in promoting agricultural trade between the two sides;the overall trade potential between China and countries along B&R is relatively large,with 31 countries among them are "potential re-modeling",with 7 countries among them are "potential pioneering",with 22 countries among them are "potentially huge".Finally,the three main conclusions are summed up,and the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward respectively,including improving trade structure of agricultural products to promote further development of agricultural products trade between the two sides;enhancing the competitiveness of agricultural products,and making full use of the complementarity of agricultural products;promoting the trade of agricultural products between the two sides according to different local conditions. |
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