| China and Thailand have always had close economic and trade exchanges.At present,with the implementation of the "the Belt and Road" initiative and the formal signing and entry into force of RCEP,the future economic and trade development level of the two countries will be further improved.At the same time,these policies are also extremely beneficial for Thailand,as they can greatly promote its economic development,increase national income,expand exports,and promote more Thai goods overseas.At the same time,it will also enable China and Thailand to have closer ties in agricultural trade and contribute to the economic development of both countries.This paper conducts research from four aspects: theoretical basis,trade status,empirical test and policy suggestions,the chapter of theoretical basis provides the support of agricultural products related concepts and trade theory for the paper,and the two chapters of trade status and empirical test analyze the trade of agricultural products between China and Thailand from qualitative and quantitative perspectives,and then derive corresponding policy recommendations.In the empirical process,based on the existing literature,this paper selects the factors of GDP,geographical distance,population size,average tariff level and whether RCEP is joined,constructs a random frontier gravitational model,analyzes the influencing factors of agricultural trade between China and Thailand,the direction and reasons of the impact,and also measures the potential of agricultural trade between China and Thailand,and analyzes non-efficiency factors such as trade freedom.Through the above analysis,it is concluded that:(1)the excessive product similarity and market similarity of Chinese and Thai agricultural products have an adverse impact on the development of agricultural trade between the two countries,but their strong complementarity in some product categories has a positive effect on the development of agricultural trade between the two countries;(2)The GDP of China and Thailand,the population size growth of Thailand and the accession of the two countries to RCEP promote the agricultural trade between the two countries,while the growth of China’s population size,geographical distance between the two countries,and the growth of the average tariff level will inhibit the trade of agricultural products between the two countries;(3)The three inefficient factors of trade freedom,financial freedom and government integrity have a certain impact on the agricultural trade between China and Thailand.Based on the above conclusions,the two countries should optimize the trade structure,strengthen complementary advantages,and accelerate the construction of China-Thailand logistics network. |
