Study On Agricultural Trade Potential Between China And Central Asia Based On Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

After the sino-us trade war started by the us government,the original pattern of China’s foreign trade in agricultural products has been broken due to the growing trade friction between China and the us,so it is urgent to find a new alternative market for agricultural products trade.The five central Asian countries,known as the first place of One Belt And One Road",have become one of the best choices to optimize China’s foreign trade structure of agricultural products due to their special strategic position and long-standing business culture with China.Therefore,it is of both theoretical and practical significance to calculate and study the potential of agricultural trade between China and the five central Asian countriesOn the basis of reviewing relevant theories and a large number of literatures,this paper subdivides the trade of agricultural products into 27 items according to the HS code in UN COMTRADE.Firstly,this paper analyzes the current situation of agricultural trade between China and five central Asian countries and the changing trend of the trade structure from the three aspects of import and export structure and country structure of agricultural products,and analyzes the current situation of bilateral agricultural trade potential from the perspective of competition and complementarity by using the index of comparative advantage and the index of trade complementarity.Secondly,this article through the inspection,on the basis of hypothetical based on the time-varying stochastic frontier model,gravity to the five central Asian countries from China agricultural product export trade of our country level and product level respectively to measure efficiency analysis and trade potential this article selects the per capita gross domestic product(PGDP)population(POP)geographic distance(DIS).and Shared border(CON)free trade agreement(FTA)degrees of freedom(TF)tariff levels(TAF)average time(TIM)import customs clearance The above ten points of logistics performance index(LPI)and trade and transport-related infrastructure index(INF)are used as explanatory variables to analyze and calculate the agricultural product export trade efficiency and trade potential of China and five central Asian countries.Finally,the results of trade efficiency analysis from the country level and product level as well as the calculation results of trade potential and trade potential improvement space are summarized for the agricultural export trade of the five countries of China and central Asia,and further development Suggestions for the continuous improvement of bilateral agricultural trade potential are put forward based on the policy trend.